It’s been said that Australian business starts winding down on Melbourne cup day (that’s today), and does not really return until Australia day – making it one (very) long “silly season”.
If you’ve been distracted – and then disappointed – by the horses today, can we suggest a better chance to win yourself this Beefeater 47652 Discovery 1000R 5-Burner BBQ currently priced at $1,079 at Appliances Online:
Those who have been readers of WattClarity for some time will recognise our summer give-away, which has been running for 10 years, now (prior winners of the main competition are listed below). It’s one of the ways we like to say thanks to the many energy-sector stakeholders we have interacted with over many years + to provide a light-hearted way to focus on one of the most important metrics in the market/sector.
Seven Separate Competitions
Given it’s popularity, we’ll continue what we started in summer 2014-15 by inviting you to send in your estimates for one (or more) of the following 7 parameters:
| What you need to estimate (for Extended Summer*) |
Entries & Prizes | |
| Comp #1 | Peak NEM-Wide Dispatch Demand TargetThe NEM is a national market, much of the time, so NEM-Wide demand (on a dispatch target basis) is a metric to keep track of.
For those who really do need the details, we calculate this on AEMO’s InfoServer as follows:
You can find this in your copy of NEM-Watch here. Summer 2014-15 saw that the NEM-wide demand was the lowest in more than 10 years! What will it be for summer 2015-16? |
You only get one shot at the big prize (above) – so make it a good one! |
| Comp #2 | Peak QLD Region Dispatch Demand TargetWith the NEM-wide trend of declining demand coming head-to-head with the emergence of upstream compression of gas supplies for LNG, summer 2014-15 proved to be very interesting (with a new all-time record almost set).
We expect that summer’s peak in QLD for 2015-16 will be higher still – given the growth in upstream compression that’s occurred across the year. But how high will it be? |
You can enter once each day – hence that means a maximum of 25 entries per person over the period.Nail this one, and you get one of 6 Consolation Prizes |
| Comp #3 | Peak NSW Region Dispatch Demand TargetUnlike the case for QLD, peak demand in NSW proved to be quite lacklustre.
What will be the case for summer 2015-16? |
You can enter once each day – hence that means a maximum of 25 entries per person over the period.Nail this one, and you get one of 6 Consolation Prizes |
| Comp #4 | Peak VIC Region Dispatch Demand TargetSummer 2014-15 failed to arrive in Victoria (at least with respect to electricity demand). The peak demand was lower by 1600MW.
We’ll be very interested to see what happens in summer 2015-16. |
You can enter once each day – hence that means a maximum of 25 entries per person over the period.Nail this one, and you get one of 6 Consolation Prizes |
| Comp #5 | Peak SA Region Dispatch Demand TargetSouth Australia is, by its nature, a very peaky region.
Peak demand is very dependent on high temperatures arriving and we found that peak demand in summer 2014-15 was a fizzer. What will it be for summer 2015-16? |
You can enter once each day – hence that means a maximum of 25 entries per person over the period.Nail this one, and you get one of 6 Consolation Prizes |
| Comp #6 | Peak TAS Region Dispatch Demand TargetAs some of our more astute (and local Tasmanian) forecasters in summer 2014-15 noted, peak “summer” demand actually came with colder weather in the March period we tacked onto our definition of summer for 2014-15.
Will it also be the case for summer 2015-16? |
You can enter once each day – hence that means a maximum of 25 entries per person over the period.Nail this one, and you get one of 6 Consolation Prizes |
| Comp #7 | Peak Aggregate 5-min Metered Wind ProductionWind production is growing in the NEM (as is the audience for people watching it spin in real time in our NEM-Watch Widget , which we developed for readers of RenewEconomy).
It was not really a surprise, then, that wind peak production in summer 2014-15 was higher than in previous summers. What will it be for summer 2015-16? |
You can enter once each day – hence that means a maximum of 25 entries per person over the period.Nail this one, and you get one of 6 Consolation Prizes |
If you prove yourself to be the “best in the NEM” at forecasting one of the above metrics, then we’ll have you enjoying your own new BBQ shortly after summer’s ended:
Get your entries in (starting today) to earn bragging rights, by out-scoring your colleagues & your competitors!
The Prize(s)
We have 7 competitions running this summer, so we need 7 prizes (plus an extra one) …
The Main Prize – A Beautiful BBQ
You only have only one entry in Competition 1, so make it count – if you’re closest to the mark (forecasting peak NEM-Wide Demand), we’ll crown you “Best Forecaster in the NEM for Summer 2015-16” and provide you the prize shown at the top of the page.
I’m sure you’ll agree that this is a wonderful prize, and it’s open to everyone who enters (subject to the fine print below)…
… but wait, there’s more…
We’d like to extend a special thank-you to all of our clients, for entrusting us to serve them. If your single entry is closest to the mark come the end of summer, and you work for a company that’s currently a valued client of ours, then I think we’ll manage to rustle up a nice bottle of Grange to wash the first snags down with! Specific vintage will depend on what we find when we go shopping closer to the end of the competition.
6 Consolation Prizes – A very handy portable BBQ
You can enter as many as one time each day for Competitions 2 to 7 – subject to the fine print below.
Your best entry (which may not be your first) will be compared against all others for that competition and the best entry (for that competition) will win this handy little worker:
To be clear, we are giving away 6 of these little babies as prizes…
It’s the “Weber Baby Q 50060224 Q1000 BBQ” from Appliances Online (current price $305). Not a bad consolation prize (especially 6 of them), I hope you will agree, and available to all (again subject to the fine print below)…
To Enter
Email us (summer@global-roam.com) with your Forecast(s)*, remembering to be clear about which competition you entry is relevant to (if you don’t do this we’ll have a guess, but don’t hold it against us if we misinterpret).
* Forecast, or W.A.G!
Your entry needs to come from a valid business email address (no GMail or Hotmail etc) and include a valid mobile number – so we can contact you to arrange delivery when you win (fingers and toes crossed for you).
Remember that it’s one entry only for Competition #1 (and the chance at the Major Prize) but that it’s as much as one entry each day for each of the other 6 Competitions, giving you a good chance of being in with a shake of winning one (or more) of the pretty reasonable Consolation Prizes.
The Fine Print
(a.k.a. suggested reading for those who are really keen!)
1) Entry is open to anyone who works in, or around, Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM),except for employees, shareholders and other general hangers-on of GLOBAL-ROAM Pty Ltd:
1a) We will be particularly supportive of employees in organisations that are clients of ours (email us with questions, and we’ll be more likely to point you at references that might help you with your guesstimate, for instance)
1b) We reserve the right to “lose” entries from companies we deem as competitors to us (can’t have them enjoying a new BBQ on us, can we!)
2) To be a valid entry:
2a) Your entry must be received on or between Tuesday 3rd November 2015 and Friday 27th November 2015 (NEM time).
2b) Your entries must be emailed to summer@global-roam.com .
2c) Your entry must contain your estimate of one (or more) of the following:
Comp # 1 = peak NEM-Wide Demand this Extended Summer* (only one entry)
Comp # 2 = peak QLD Demand this Extended Summer*
Comp # 3 = peak NSW Demand this Extended Summer*
Comp # 4 = peak VIC Demand this Extended Summer*
Comp # 5 = peak SA Demand this Extended Summer*
Comp # 6 = peak TAS Demand this Extended Summer*
Comp # 7 = peak Aggregate Wind Farm Output this Extended Summer*
This year we’re using an extended definition of “Summer” to incorporate all of Q1 – hence from 1st December 2015 to 31st March 2016.2d) Your entry must be from a valid work email address, and contain your mobile number (on which we can contact you to arrange for delivery).
2e) If you feel exceptionally lucky (or think you’re a good forecaster) you can also tell us where to have the BBQ delivered. You don’t need to tell us which it is (i.e. if you’re just lucky, or if you think you are an exceptional forecaster)!
3) Each of the 7 competitions will be judged independently (i.e. you could, if you are exceptionally good – or just plain lucky) win all 7 BBQ. I’m sure you’ll have enough “friends” to make your job difficult in handing them all out!
4) The winner will be notified directly soon after the end of Summer, and the winner’s name will also be published on the WattClarity ® site .
4a) Delivery of the BBQ will be organised to a location within the standard delivery area of Appliances Online.
4b) If they are out of that particular stock, we’ll arrange a similar model for you – at around the same price (happy to take your suggestions on that).
4c) If the pricing of the prize differs massively from what’s indicated above, we reserve the right to substitute something similar at around the same price. We would, of course, work with you to ensure it was something that you were happy to receive!
5) If more than one entry is identical (and all are closest to the mark) we’ll take one from a current client, first (and if there is more than one then we’ll take the first one we’ve received).
6) The decision of the judges (global-roam Pty Ltd) is final and no correspondence will be entered into.
You could try to bribe them, but that won’t work (though they might be able to save up to have their own holiday next summer).
You could try to get in their “good books” by purchasing lots of NEM-Watch (or by referring NEM-Watch to those poor unfortunate souls who don’t yet have their own copies) – but, whilst that would make them happy, it will not get you closer to being declared the winner (though you will have a pretty good view of what the demand is, all summer!)
Suggested Reading
On WattClarity, you might find the following context useful in determining your entry. We’ll be adding more in the coming weeks, so keep an eye on the site.
1) Over-arching this competition, and all forecasts for demand (which underlie a number of investment planning decisions), is the question about where demand is headed into the future. To answer that question, one must first understand how demand has been changing in the NEM, and some of the many factors contributing to the current trend of decline.
2) Our prior year competition entries will also factor into your estimate for this summer:
Last summer (2014-15) we saw the NEM-wide demand “peak” (if that was the word for it) below 30,000MW – and energy-sector lawyer Connor James won himself a BBQ .
Back in summer (2013-14) we saw the NEM-wide demand peak at 33,223MW and an AEMO staff member (Magnus Hindsberger) use a very scientific process to ensure he was within 0.26% of the mark). Highly recommended reading is Magnus’ comment at the bottom of that article, where he explains some of his method.
During summer 2012-13 Joy Chan (of Delta) just scraped past other colleagues at Delta, and the rest of the entrants, with an entry just shy of the mark – in a summer where the peak demand crept close to 32,000MW.
Summer was lacklustre in 2011-12, but the competition still sparkled, and Aden Fanning (of InterGen) was awarded the BBQ and the kudos for a 12 month period.
Summer 2010-11 competition winner – Richard Hickling (of AEMO) – bid <200MW (just 0.6%) higher than the actual demand peak.
Winter 2009 competition winner – Andrea Prouse (of EnergyAustralia – i.e. the original Sydney retailer!) – was 577MW from the mark in a winter that failed to spark.
Summer’s peak in demand in summer 2008-09 , when Thao Doan (of Stanwell) was a whopping 900MW below the peak in a summer that smashed the previous record.
Summer’s peak in demand in summer 2006-07 , when David Turnour (of Origin) was about 100MW from the mark (0.3%)
Summer’s peak in demand in summer 2005-06 , when Trevor Persal (of Ergon) practically nailed it, with an excellent entry!
So sharpen your pencils, polish your calculators and crank another can of your favourite sugar-laced, caffeine-filled and stimulant-pumped “energy” drink.
If your colleagues have won at the Cup and have taken off on an extended holiday – well, here’s your chance to get a few entries in (more than one allowed only for the Consolation Prizes) whilst, at the same time, solving the multi-billion dollar puzzle of “what’s the peak demand going to be across the NEM this summer?”.
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