Coincident with the race, we’ve seen a number of comments in social media about the coincident (& large) drop in demand in NSW that occurred around the same time – a number of people linking the two together. Last year we posted both:
1) A review on Monday prior to the 2014 race of the effect of previous years; and
2) This review of how electricity demand changed in 2014 coincident with the running of the horses.
Here’s how this Tuesday’s change looked in NEM-Watch:
We should clarify, however, that (as noted in the image above) the large drop in load in 2015 was not due to the horse race, exciting as that might have been…
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
Based on forecasts NEMMCO had been providing through their PASA process, we expected that it might prove that this week would deliver huge demand levels, and high prices.
Not to disappoint, the market did deliver high levels of demand in all regions:
(a) Peak demand levels were reduced somewhat from the huge levels the previous week in Victoria and South Australia;
(b) Demand levels were also still building to the record level to be experienced the following week in NSW;
(c) Peak demand levels in Queensland were fairly steady (and high) for most weeks of summer.
(d) In combination, a new NEM-wide peak demand target of 30,994MW was set on Monday 23rd January.
New South Wales recently experienced a severe heatwave, which saw parts of the state exceed 45°C. During this three day period, small solar PV (i.e. PV systems that are not registered as generators in the NEM), generated about 17 GWh of power.
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
One of our guest authors, a meteorologist, lends his expertise to helping us understand one of the reasons why peak demand for summer 2014-15 was what it was.
4 Commentson "It wasn’t the horse race that led the large drop in load in NSW coincident with the race"
That’s my understanding also – however I did not know, for sure, if that information was public knowledge hence was not going to be the first to state so.
Th e story portrayed by the aluminium industry is that they couldn’t possibly participate in any load shedding at any time, because then all their pot lines would need to be emptied out of solid aluminium. Yet when when the problem is their side of the meter it doesn’t seem to be a problem.
Okay, I’m in suspense. So what did cause the significant drop in demand in NSW?
…it was Tomago Aluminium.
Thanks Tom
That’s my understanding also – however I did not know, for sure, if that information was public knowledge hence was not going to be the first to state so.
Paul
Th e story portrayed by the aluminium industry is that they couldn’t possibly participate in any load shedding at any time, because then all their pot lines would need to be emptied out of solid aluminium. Yet when when the problem is their side of the meter it doesn’t seem to be a problem.