The hot weather arrives, but demand stays low

New Years Eve 2010 has coincided with the arrival of hot weather across South Australia and Victoria, as shown in the following progression of images from NEM-Watch v8.

As can be seen in these images, demand remains very moderate across all regions, and hence NEM-wide (though with reference to this prior analysis, we can see that the demand experienced today is the highest that demand has been so far this summer).

At 06:15 (NEM time) this morning, we see very modest levels of demand and negative prices in South Australia as a result of (amongst other things) excessive wind generation.

2010-12-31 at 06-15 NEM-Watch

As early as 09:05 NEM time, we see the temperature in Adelaide had risen above 30 degrees Celcius.

2010-12-31 at 09-05 NEM-Watch

At 11:00, we see that temperatures had continued to climb (now 36 in Adelaide, and 31 in Melbourne).  Demand and price remain very subdued.

2010-12-31 at 11-00 NEM-Watch

By 14:20, we see that temperatures have climbed to be 42 degrees in Geelong whilst they have backed off slightly in Adelaide (with a slight rise in humidity).  Prices have also started creeping upwards a little.

2010-12-31 at 14-20 NEM-Watch

At 15:45 (shortly before this post was published) we see the temperature backing off further in Adelaide, and climbing in the east).

2010-12-31 at 15-45 NEM-Watch

Despite the temperatures, NEM-wide demand has not risen above 29,000MW.

Entries continue to flow in for our semi-serious “Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM” competition.  A quick look at some of these entries reveals that some, at least, expect the demand to rise considerably in the weeks ahead…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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