The following graphic illustrates what NEMMCO had forecast (at Tuesday 17th January, before their update on 23rd January had been released) for date noted above:
(a) This forecast has not changed markedly in more than 6 weeks, which is a cause for concern.
(b) Even more of a concern is the fact that an LOR3 alert level has been signalled by NEMMCO for the peak demand periods of the day:
LOR3 is more dire than LOR2 and means that there is insufficient generation capacity being made available (in SA and VIC in this case) to meet peak demand – in other words, if an extreme demand day eventuates, load shedding will be necessary.
(c) It can be seen from this diagram that the market is pricing in a tight supply/demand balance in the futures prices for the current quarter (especially the peak prices). However, we are still investigating whether the peak price contracts referenced (a low of $72.75 in Queensland to a high of $89 in South Australia) reflect what may actually eventuate in the spot market, given the numerous days this quarter when low reserve conditions are currently forecast.
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Our fourth article looking forward to this Friday afternoon (3rd February 2023) in the Queensland region, where successive AEMO STPASA forecast data is showing considerable variability about what peak demand might be for the QLD region (it *might*, if predictions turn into reality, smash the prior all-time record). Dan Lee looks into how the demand forecast has been evolving and what to watch for this Friday afternoon.
Following a week where several days saw price volatility in NSW (with this being so extreme that Reserve Trader was triggered on Thursday 17th December) we’ve taken a look at the comparative performance of coal units across the NEM (and particularly in NSW) compared to prior years.
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