The NEMwatch dashboard this morning (at 08:00 NEM time on Tuesday 27th May 2025) shows a solid block of wind production looking back over the 12 hours overnight:
… which makes one wonder about the height of the peak overnight, and whether the earlier forecasts held up to be correct.
Referring to this different ‘Trends Engine’ view from the ez2view software looking back just over a week, we can see a few different data series:
On this trend chart we can see:
1) First and foremost, we can see that the level of wind production reached 9,287MW as FinalMW for the 21:35 dispatch interval NEM time on Monday 26th May 2025
(a) Which exceeds the prior all-time record (8,431MW on Thursday 30th May 2024) by a considerable margin …
i. by 856MW;
ii. or, in other words, the record was bumped upwards by just over 10%.
(b) Also worth noting (in relation to the ‘is VRE forecastable’ question) that the actual level was considerably higher than earlier forecasts, as well.
2) Note that this number is comprised of:
(a) The bulk (8,746MW or 94% of the total) being FinalMW from all Semi-Scheduled wind farms;
(b) With the remainder (541MW or 6%) being FinalMW from the other Non-Scheduled wind farms that the AEMO has visibility of in real time.
3) With respect to the Semi-Scheduled wind farms only:
(a) We can see (in the light blue lines) that there was 128MW of curtailment of Semi-Scheduled wind at the time of this record:
i. I’ve not checked which region(s) this was in;
ii. Nor have I directly checked whether this was for economic reasons or network reasons … though the SA price was the only one negative (and barely so), so it seems unlikely to be economic.
(b) Noting that this is notwithstanding any games that self-forecasters can play, which might have influenced the voracity (oops, veracity, thanks Paul) of the ‘UIGF’ figures for certain wind farms!
That’s all for now…
I blinked and I missed it.
Perhaps check out “veracity” vs “voracity” although perhaps the winds were “voracious”.
Good to see this result, and a safe prediction is that the continuing commissioning of a number of large wind farms means that new peaks are likely over the next few months.
oops and thanks … although perhaps ‘voracity’ might also apply in terms of any games that self-forecasters can play!