A trend of daily peak Victoria ‘Market Demand’– from 1st January 2008 to 1st February 2025

Posted by Paul McArdle Sunday, February 2 2025 Topic: Growth in peak demand

Yesterday we posted ‘A trend of daily peak NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’– from 1st January 2008 to 31st January 2025’.

Given the attention on the forecast demand in Victoria for the coming days with the heatwave (including here, but also elsewhere) we thought it would be useful to also publish the same type of analysis, but just for the Victorian region….

 

(A)  A brief reminder about the complexity of measuring ‘Demand’ …

…. because it’s not as simple as some might initially think.

Note this ‘A brief reminder about the complexity of measuring ‘Demand’ …’ here.

With this in mind, let’s look on….

 

 

(B)  A long-range trend of daily peak

So utilising the ‘Trends Engine’ within ez2view we’ve put the following trend together, showing both ‘Market Demand’ and ‘Operational Demand’ (noting that reconstructing an estimate of ‘Underlying Demand’ over such a long time range is more complex and we don’t have time to do this today for this brief article.

2025-02-02-at-11-29-ez2view-Trend-DailyPeak-Victoria-Demand

Remember to click on the image for a larger-resolution view.

For ease of reference, I’ve added a horizontal line:

  • at 10,000MW (only 8 days have ever seen higher) and
  • at 9,500MW (only 16 days have ever seen higher … in 6,242 days (so 0.26% incidence)

 

(C)  A tabular listing of some of those high demand days

With the above chart as a reference, here’s some of the high points in each year noted (with some linked to articles written at the time).

 

Year Brief Explanation of the top demand days (in Victoria) in each year,

in terms of ‘Market Demand’

2008

1 day over 9,500MW:

  • Mon 17th March 2008 (9,756MW)

2009

3 days over 10,000MW in January 2009::

  • Wed 28th January 2009 (10,035MW).
  • Thu 29th Jan 2009 (10,496MW… still highest day ever in Victoria, and NEM-wide) and
  • Fri 30th Jan 2009 (10,421MW).

2010

3 days over 9,500MW:

  • Mon 11th Jan 2010 (9,875MW)
  • Mon 8th Feb 2010 (9,545MW)
  • Mon 9th Feb 2010 (9,508MW)

2011

1 day over 9,500MW:

  • Tue 1st Feb 2011 (9,624MW)

2012

0 days over 9,500MW

2013

1 day over 9,500MW:

  • Tue 12th March 2013 (9,666MW)

2014

5 days over 10,000MW in January 2009::

  • Tue 14th Jan 2014 (10,072MW)
  • Wed 15th Jan 2014 (10,107MW)
  • Thu 16th Jan 2014 (10,277MW)
  • Fri 17th Jan 2014 (10,239MW)

… and then, after a week’s break:

  • Tue 28th Jan 2014 (10,078MW)

2015

0 days over 9,500MW

2016

0 days over 9,500MW

2017

0 days over 9,500MW

2018

0 days over 9,500MW

2019

0 days over 9,500MW

2020

January 2020 saw :

  • Friday 31st January 2020 saw 9,608MW… a day we wrote many articles about

2021

0 days over 9,500MW

2022

0 days over 9,500MW

2023

0 days over 9,500MW

2024

Monday 16th December 2024 reached 9,887MW.

2025 ytd

This year is only very young … only 1 month + 1 day old.

  • The highest daily peak so far this year has been 8,733MW on Monday 27th January 2025.
  • If Monday 3rd February 2025 exceeds 9,500MW we can see from the above it would be only the 3rd time in 11 years (i.e. since the start of February 2024) that has seen demand level that high.

… and that’s before even thinking about ‘Underlying Demand’, which would be higher still.

 

So let’s wait to see what unfolds…

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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