Yesterday we wrote ‘Higher NEMwide demand forecasts for Monday 3rd and Tuesday 4th February 2025’ and noted we’d been keeping an eye on successive AEMO forecasts by ‘looking up a vertical’ in the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view.
So here’s an updated view at the 12:35 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Friday 31st January 2025:
With respect to this image:
1) In the bottom widget, we look at forecast NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ …
(a) and see it’s been hotting up for Monday 3rd February 2025.
i. The highest forecast (for 32,633MW in the half-hour period ending 18:30 NEM time) was published at 09:00 this morning, and have moderated ever-so-slightly since that time.
ii. so that would be ~1,000MW below the peak level achieved on 16th December 2024 (but also at a level only surpassed on 4 days in 2024, including 16th December).
(b) Demand levels forecast to be not-quite-that-high for Tuesday 4th February 2025.
2) In the top widget we’re specifically focused on VIC ‘Market Demand’ …
(a) Remembering that the all-time maximum by this measure was 10,496MW (set on 29th January 2009) …
(b) We see the current forecasts are for ~9,500MW in the half-hour to 18:30 (NEM time) for Monday 3rd February 2025 (so slightly below the peak level achieved on 16th December 2024 );
(c) Whilst just above ~9,000MW for Tuesday 4th February 2025.
Related to this, over lunch we saw Weatherzone (now known as DTN) write that ‘Melbourne could see its hottest three-day spell in 11 years.’, which sounds decidedly uncomfortable:
No wonder that at 10:23 (NEM time) today the AEMO updated (i.e. extended) it’s ‘NEM Local Temperature Alerts’ for SA, TAS and VIC as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 31/01/2025 10:23:28
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 123955
Notice Type ID : GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description : Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date : 31/01/2025
External Reference : NEM Local Temperature Alerts for SA, TAS, VIC from 31 Jan 2025 to 04 Feb 2025
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO’s weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures equal to or greater than the NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels for listed weather stations below.
SA
Adelaide West Terrace (39+ Deg C): 3rd Feb
Clare High School (39+ Deg C): 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb, 4th Feb
Mt Gambier Ap (39+ Deg C): 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb
Port Augusta Ap (39+ Deg C): 1st Feb, 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb, 4th Feb
TAS
Launceston Ti Tree Bend (33+ Deg C): 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb, 4th Feb
VIC
Latrobe Valley Ap (39+ Deg C): 2nd Feb
Mildura Ap (39+ Deg C): 1st Feb, 2nd Feb, 3rd Feb, 4th Feb
Mortlake (39+ Deg C): 3rd Feb
The NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels are:
Launceston Ti Tree Bend: 33 Deg C, Dalby Airport: 37 Deg C, for all other selected weather stations: 39 Deg C.
AEMO requests Market Participants to:
1. review the weather forecast in the local area where their generating units / MNSP converter stations are located and,
2. if required, update the available capacity in their dispatch offers or availability submissions consistent with the forecast temperatures.
Further information is available at:
AEMO Operations Planning
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘
… so watch this space.
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