Significant (-786MW) drop in NSW demand, on Wednesday 13th November 2024

The ‘Notifications’ widget in one of our copies of ez2view triggered an alert that we’ve not seen all that often at all, flagging a 786MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in the period from 10:25 to 10:30 NEM time on Wednesday 13th November 2024:

That’s not far off the size of the Tomago smelter (for instance) so a sizeable about of load – whether it be large industrial load or half a reasonably sized city.

Here’ a snapshot from NEMwatch at 10:45 NEM time clearly showing the scale of the drop.

Also noticeable are three different Market Notices for ‘reclassify contingency’ which (perhaps!) might give a clue as to what’s happened – or might be unrelated.

Working the way down the list:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

 From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     13/11/2024     10:15:11

 ——————————————————————-

 Notice ID               :         120339
Notice Type ID          :         RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY
Notice Type Description :         Reclassify contingency events
Issue Date              :         13/11/2024
External Reference      :         Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bayswater – Mt Piper No.5A3 500kV line and Wollar – Mt Piper No.5A5 500kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.

 ——————————————————————-

 Reason :

 AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

 Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.

 Region: NSW1

 Lines: Bayswater – Mt Piper No.5A3 500kV and Wollar – Mt Piper No.5A5 500kV

 Duration: 13/11/2024 10:14 until further notice

 Constraint set(s) invoked:
NONE

 Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations

 ——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

… and …

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

 From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     13/11/2024     10:16:29

 ——————————————————————-

 Notice ID               :         120340
Notice Type ID          :         RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY
Notice Type Description :         Reclassify contingency events
Issue Date              :         13/11/2024
External Reference      :         Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Bannaby – Mt Piper 5A6 500kV line and Bannaby – Mt Piper 5A7 500kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.

 ——————————————————————-

 Reason :

 AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

 Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.

 Region: NSW1

 Lines: Bannaby – Mt Piper 5A6 500kV and Bannaby – Mt Piper 5A7 500kV

 Duration: 13/11/2024 10:14 until further notice

 Constraint set(s) invoked:
N-5A6+5A7_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
VIC1-NSW1

 Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations

 ——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

… and …

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

 From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     13/11/2024     10:02:29

 ——————————————————————-

 Notice ID               :         120338
Notice Type ID          :         RECLASSIFY CONTINGENCY
Notice Type Description :         Reclassify contingency events
Issue Date              :         13/11/2024
External Reference      :         Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event: Armidale – Dumaresq 8C 330kV line and Armidale – Sapphire WF 8E 330kV line in NSW1 due to Lightning.

 ——————————————————————-

 Reason :

 AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

 Reclassification of a Non-Credible Contingency Event as a Credible Contingency Event due to Lightning. AEMO considers the simultaneous trip of the following circuits to now be more likely and reasonably possible. Accordingly AEMO has reclassified it as a credible contingency event.

 Region: NSW1

 Lines: Armidale – Dumaresq 8C 330kV and Armidale – Sapphire WF 8E 330kV

 Duration: 13/11/2024 10:02 until further notice

 Constraint set(s) invoked:
N-ARDM_ARSR_1PH_N-2 Constraint set contains the following interconnector(s) on the left hand side:
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1

 Auto-generated on behalf of Manager NEM Real Time Operations

 ——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘

All three reference line reclassification (in NSW) due to lightning. Was that a factor in the demand drop?