AEMO forecasting an LOR2 condition for SA tomorrow evening September 10th, 2024

At the Global-Roam office we’ll be keeping an eye on what develops in SA into tomorrow evening – with the AEMO having just posted Market Notice #118202, alerting of a forecast LOR2 between 18:30 and 19:30 tomorrow evening:

________________________________________________________________________________________________

MARKET NOTICE 118202
________________________________________________________________________________________________

Notice ID 118202
Notice Type ID LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Notice Type Description MARKET
Issue Date Monday, September 9, 2024
External Reference STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 10/09/2024
________________________________________________________________________________________________

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the SA region for the following period:

From 1830 hrs to 1930 hrs 10/09/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 347 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 343 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

An earlier LOR2 forecast notice was posted late last night at 22:34 (Market Notice #118200), but cancelled a little over two hours later (Market Notice #118202). The image below is taken from our forecast convergence widget, and shows how the LOR forecasts for SA tomorrow night have evolved over the past ~14 hours.

Convergence of forecast LOR conditions in SA tomorrow evening.

Source: ez2view’s Forecast Convergence widget