Tuesday 31st October 2023 sees the only two instances (in Q4, and all year) of AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units < -500MW

Earlier today I posted about how there’s a startling growth of large collective deviations of under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units, using the particular case of Sunday 24th December 2023 to illustrate in various ways.

On the flip side, when looking at Aggregate Raw Off-Target for all Semi-Scheduled units in the delayed GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q4, it’s become increasingly apparent that the pattern we saw emerging through 2023 Q1 and 2023 Q2 and 2023 Q3 has become quite clear:

1)  Whilst there is a clear growth in the incidence of large collective under-performance across Semi-Sched units (indeed, the growth is accelerating by some measures);

2)  At the other end of the spectrum, we see the incidence of large collective over-performance (across Semi-Sched units) is rapidly declining.     … and the result on this side is a very good thing!

Across calendar 2023 there were only 2 instances where AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units was < –500MW:

1)  That’s well down on the 19 instances we saw in 2022; and

2)  Is the inverse of the increase (from 70 to 102 instances of +500MW under-performance) we see on the other side of the ledger.

Both of those instances of collective over-performance larger than –500MW occurred on Tuesday 31st October 2023.  Here’s the same sort of trend through 288 x Dispatch intervals of Aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ through that day:

Keep in mind (as noted before) that Aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ is not the same as Aggregate Raw Off-Target … but is pretty similar, for Semi-Scheduled units.

We’ll look forward to delving more into these two discrete dispatch intervals (14:40 and 14:45) as time permits.