This article is an update on this earlier update from ~15:20 this afternoon … and it’s also a correction, as I’d left out some forecast instances of LOR3 in South Australia and Tasmania (apologies for any confusion this caused readers).
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The table is intended to be* what’s current (i.e. at the time above in the title) in the way of AEMO’s forecast LOR3 (i.e. controlled load shedding) instances for the coming days.
* … unless I have missed anything else?!
(A) Caveat
Once again, it’s worth readers keeping the following two sides of the coin in mind …
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On the one side… |
On the other side … |
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In relation to my 1st update on Tuesday 14th June, Allan O’Neil wrote this comment on LinkedIn which I thought useful to copy in here: We have to put some context around “load forecast to be shed” in these extraordinary circumstances. A number of participants are not offering their supply to the market, possibly because they don’t think compensation arrangements for running under the administered price cap would be financially satisfactory. In some ways it would be better if AEMO could preface its statements with “Due to xxx MW of supply which is technically available but not being offered into the market …” Worth reading the other comments on that LinkedIn thread. |
In response to the same article on Twitter here, one reader had added this: Even if things rectify themselves* like yesterday, the system is still tight and assumes nothing else goes wrong On Monday 13th I wrote about ‘Desperate times call for desperate measures’ in relation to constraints being violated (and the NEM in a less secure state than AEMO would desire) because of these types of dynamics. I’ve not had time to look, but would not be surprised to see that this type of thing has happened on other occasions since. We need to keep in mind that there is (underlying the cost + Price Cap dilemmas) we are also faced with a supply-demand balance that’s not flushed with oodles of surplus capacity at present. |
Also worth keeping in mind this reminder from the AER about generator compliance obligations.
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With that in mind, let’s look further…
(B) The status for each of the mainland regions
Given all four mainland regions are under Administered Pricing, I have provided space to include details for each – though forecast LOR3 has not (yet?!) been seen for SA. When the wind next drops we’ll see what ensues…
It’s worth repeating what AEMO noted in MN97340 at 16:33 on Tuesday 14th June, where they say:
‘Participants are required to note that the current forecast LOR3 conditions do not reflect the intervention options that AEMO has taken, including directions to scheduled generation. The reserve forecasting process is automated based on bids received at the time of issuing the forecast. This means that in some cases the capacity of directed units is not shown in reserves until shortly before the effective time of direction.’
Assuming I’ve not missed anything, or transcribed incorrectly, here’s the most recent forecasts …
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QLD Region |
NSW Region |
VIC Region |
SA Region |
TAS Region |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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For Monday (13th June) there were several updates on the forecast for QLD … but nothing eventuated (as AEMO noted here). |
For Monday (13th June) there were several updates on the forecast for NSW … but nothing eventuated (as AEMO noted here). |
For Monday (13th June) nothing was relevant for VIC. |
For Monday (13th June) nothing was relevant for SA. |
For Monday (13th June) nothing was relevant for TAS. |
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With respect to Tuesday 14th June 2022… ————— At 17:58 Tue 14th MN97375 was published cancelling prior forecasts for Tuesday evening.
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With respect to Tuesday 14th June 2022… ————— At 18:04 Tue 14th MN97381 was published cancelling prior forecasts for Tuesday evening. |
With respect to Tuesday 14th June 2022… ————— At 16:23 Tue 14th MN97332 cancelled the prior LOR3 alert in MN97302. |
With respect to Tuesday 14th June 2022… ————— No such warnings for SA at this point. |
With respect to Tuesday 14th June 2022… ————— No such warnings for TAS at this point. |
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With respect to Wednesday 15th June 2022… ————— At 17:58 Tue 14th MN97375 was published pertaining to Wed 15th and 16th June. The key points are: ‘from 06:30 to 08:30’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 875MW at 07:00’ … plus … ‘from 17:00 to 00:30 on 16th’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 1,152MW at 18:00’ These are big numbers, but remember the caveat above. |
With respect to Wednesday 15th June 2022… ————— At 18:04 Tue 14th MN97381 was published pertaining to Wed 15th and 16th June. The key points are: ‘from 06:30 to 08:30’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 1,219MW at 07:00’ … plus … ‘from 17:00 to 03:30 on 16th’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 2,851MW at 20:00’ These are big numbers, but remember the caveat above. |
With respect to Wednesday 15th June 2022… ————— At 16:23 Tue 14th MN97332 cancelled the prior LOR3 alert in MN97302. |
With respect to Wednesday 15th June 2022… ————— At 17:27 Tue 14th MN97368 cancelled the prior LOR3 alert in MN97314. |
With respect to Wednesday 15th June 2022… ————— At 16:53 Tue 14th MN97352 cancelled the prior LOR3 alert in MN97305. |
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With respect to Thursday 16th June 2022… ————— See above for how it’s forecast to potentially spill over into Thursday till 00:30. |
With respect to Thursday 16th June 2022… ————— See above for how it’s forecast to potentially spill over into Thursday till 03:30. There was also an earlier forecast in MN97366, but this appears to have been cancelled. |
With respect to Thursday 16th June 2022… ————— Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for VIC |
With respect to Thursday 16th June 2022… ————— Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for SA |
With respect to Thursday 16th June 2022… ————— Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for TAS |
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With respect to Friday 17th June 2022… ————— Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for QLD |
With respect to Friday 17th June 2022… ————— Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for NSW |
With respect to Friday 17th June 2022… ————— Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for VIC |
With respect to Friday 17th June 2022… ————— Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for SA |
With respect to Friday 17th June 2022… ————— Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for TAS |
With respect to the table above, I am striving to collate the information in a way that’s more easily digestible (whilst at the same time maintaining accuracy and currency) … but that’s a challenge!
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