Entries in our competition for summer 2011-12

Leaving the office in the capable hands of a reduced team for a few weeks over the summer break, I returned to find that our semi-regular competition had taken an interesting turn, this year …

This year, at the initiative of others in the team, we undertook to publish the names and individual entries of each of the entrants (except if they objected, which no-one did).

As you might know, we strive to promote “Openness” as one of the core values of our company:
1)  Through our software, we strive to make the market understandable to a wide range of people – as one facet of working to ensure the market delivers sustainable benefits;
2)  Within our company, we share information openly about where we are headed, and how we’re going to get there;
3)  Through our Agile development processes, we adopt an open dialogue with our clients as we seek to (collaboratively) make our products better and better, every month and year.

Hence you’d understand that I don’t mind this approach at all – and, it seems, nor do a number of people who entered the competition again this year – though I do wonder if we scared anyone off (let me know if it did)?

So we wonder what we else we can learn given that the identity of the bidders has been revealed?

List of entries (sorted)

For completeness, I’ve moved the record that we’d temporarily placed on another site to here – this has also been sorted in ascending order of demand estimate, in order that you can easily keep tabs on who’s in the running for the BBQ this year:

Forecaster	# entries	Date	Organisation	Forecast Bid (MW)
Aden Fanning	6	30/12/2011	InterGen	31,003
Aden Fanning	6	29/12/2011	InterGen	32,003
Alan Lao	1	23/12/2011	Delta Electricity	32,326
David Sweeney	1	23/12/2011	Aurora Energy	32,400
Connell Burke	1	31/12/2011	Westpac	32,750
Chris Muffett	1	28/12/2011	AEMO	32,911
Aden Fanning	6	28/12/2011	InterGen	33,003
Bandu Gamage	1	23/12/2011	AEMO – Melbourne	33,025
Mark Roberts	1	23/12/2011	Attunga Capital	33,333
GaryWyatt	1	23/12/2011	ANZ	33,351
Alistair	1	23/12/2011	ANZ	33,500
Ben Blake	2	30/12/2011	AEMO	33,501
Jorge Heijo	1	23/12/2011	ANZ	33,617
Reinhard Struve (see note below)	9	29/12/2011	in Adelaide	33,619
Ian Phillips	3	29/12/2011	InterGen	33,897
Brian Massey	8	29/12/2011	in Adelaide	33,999
Aden Fanning	6	26/12/2011	InterGen	34,003
Mottel Gestetner	1	27/12/2011	EnerNOC	34,008
Ian Philips	3	28/12/2011	InterGen	34,183
Reinhard Struve	9	30/12/2011	in Adelaide	34,184
Reinhard Struve	9	28/12/2011	in Adelaide	34,435
Paul Daniel	1	23/12/2011	ANZ	34,441
Steven Grotte	1	23/12/2011	ANZ	34,450
Ben Blake	2	29/12/2011	AEMO	34,501
Kathy Staggs	2	29/12/2011	NSW Trade and Investment	34,555
Elijah Pack	2	29/12/2011	AEMO	34,566
Tim Astley	1	23/12/2011	Office of Energy Planning and Conservation – Tasmania State Government	34,567
Elijah Pack	2	23/12/2011	AEMO	34,568
Brian Massey	8	28/12/2011	in Adelaide	34,579
Richard Hickling	1	30/12/2011	AEMO	34,636
Simon Taylor	1	28/12/2011	Powerlink	34,672
Brian Massey	8	30/12/2011	in Adelaide	34,673
Brian Massey	8	27/12/2011	in Adelaide	34,895
Aden Fanning	6	23/12/2011	InterGen	35,003
Brian Massey	8	23/12/2011	in Adelaide	35,017
Ben Johnson	1	30/12/2011	ERM Power	35,105
Ian Philips	3	23/12/2011	InterGen Australia	35,200
Reinhard Struve	9	31/12/2011	in Adelaide	35,327
Ben Hayden	1	23/12/2011	NRG Gladstone Operating Services	35,328
Brian Massey	8	24/12/2011	in Adelaide	35,335
Chris Scott	4	30/12/2011	Powerlink Queensland	35,351
Kathy Staggs	2	23/12/2011	NSW Trade and Investment	35,444
Brian Massey	8	25/12/2011	in Adelaide	35,645
Brian Massey	8	26/12/2011	in Adelaide	35,895
Reinhard Struve	9	27/12/2011	in Adelaide	36,145
Chris Scott	4	29/12/2011	PowerLink Queensland	36,251
Chris Scott	4	28/12/2011	Powerlink	37,250
Reinhard Struve	9	26/12/2011	in Adelaide	37,895
Chris Scott	4	31/12/2011	Powerlink Queensland	38,001
Reinhard Struve	9	25/12/2011	in Adelaide	38,145
Reinhard Struve	9	23/12/2011	in Adelaide	38,515
Reinhard Struve	9	24/12/2011	in Adelaide	38,645
Aden Fanning	6	31/12/2011	InterGen	38,700
Anon	1	23/12/2011	Anon	3,351,329

Out of interest, I’ve also included a column to make it clear how many entries each person made over the days allotted.

Special note should go to Reinhard Struve from Adelaide, who placed an entry every single day the competition was open – that’s some commitment (and a real need for a BBQ)!

Analysis of entries

As we’ve done in previous years, we’ve done some analysis to see what it tells us of where a collective view is of where peak* demand will end up (note we have excluded the extreme bid, as this is most likely the result of trouble making entries with small keys on smart phones!)

As can be seen here, the consensus view seems to be that it will be a hot summer with demand peaking at around the level it achieved in previous hot summers, but not much higher (there are a few entries out to the right of this point, but they seem to be more defensive strategies from people trying to win the BBQ).

How do traders and non-traders compare in their views?  On the whole, it does appear that the traders are slightly more conservative in their estimates, whilst the non-traders are more bullish.

* Note that this competition is all about where the peak demand will land (even if only for a single dispatch interval through the summer period) – average demand is another matter entirely, as discussed here.

Interest in Electricity Demand

We saw last week Marcus Priest make a few comments in the AFR on Thursday 5th January about how the hot weather in NSW and VIC drove demand higher last week, despite the fact that many were not back at work.

Today it’s predicted to be a scorcher for the southern part of QLD – already temperatures and demand are rocketing up, as seen through this screenshot from NEM-Watch v8:

Let summer roll on, in order that we can see who’s closest to the mark…. (and stay tuned here for more updates)