AEMO issues (its 3rd ever) ‘Minimum System Load’ alert for Victoria … for Friday 27th September 2024

We noted yesterday afternoon that ‘AEMO issues the (second ever) ‘Minimum System Load’ Market Notice for Victoria on Sat 28th Sept 2024 (AFL Grand Final Day)’.

I’m suspecting that these types of Market Notices will become pretty commonplace … especially during shoulder seasons like Spring 2024 …. but nonetheless important (especially if, for political reasons, the AEMO is unable to switch off rooftop PV as can be done in South Australia on occasions).  Today there’s MN118442 published at 15:14 pertaining to Friday 27th September 2024, as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     25/09/2024     15:14:36

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Notice ID               :         118442
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         25/09/2024
External Reference      :         Minimum System Load 1 (MSL1) in the VIC Region on 27/09/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the Victorian region from 1300 hrs 27/09/2024 to 1330 hrs 27/09/2024.

Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1879 MW at 1330 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
o    MSL1 – 1915 MW
o    MSL2 – 1415 MW
o    MSL3 – 915 MW

MSL events are forecast when forecast regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The forecast regional demand is below the MSL1 threshold.

Refer to NEM Data Dashboard to monitor demand levels: https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem

AEMO is seeking a market response.

An insufficient market response may require AEMO to take action or intervene to maintain power system security in Victoria. This may result in action such as the direction of scheduled production units, curtailment of non-scheduled production units, and/or a direction to maintain regional demand above required MSL threshold, in both Victoria and South Australia.

AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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Related to these Market Notices, I saw that Giles Parkinson had written about ‘Not Enough Demand: Big batteries may be told to stand by on empty to avoid rooftop solar switch-off’ on RenewEconomy yesterday:

Readers here might find that article (and the comments below) of use.

I’ve not actually crunched the numbers myself, but gut feeling is that:

1)  the scale and depth of (directable) battery storage in Victoria currently is such that an approach like this could only be a partial solution;

2)  and one that potentially costs money as well (via payments for directions)

… but perhaps an approach brought about because of political expedience (and an unwillingness to switch off rooftop PV)?

Perhaps one of our more learned readers can share numbers they have crunched?

Something to watch, as Spring 2024 unfolds…