Large Energy Users feeling the strain (such as at Tomago)
A short article tying together two independent events - both related to Energy Intensive Energy Users
All Posts
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Slides circulated, from the Nelson Review briefings during May 2025
Given the instructions were ‘Feel free to share it more widely with your colleagues and networks’, here's the slide deck from the Nelson Review presentations through May 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
A 495MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday morning 5th June 2025
Another short article to note a 495MW drop in demand in NSW (measured in 'Market Demand') to the 10:10 dispatch interval on Thursday 5th June 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
A map showing the geographic spread of semi-scheduled dispatch errors on Monday 26th May 2025
Dan adds to our ongoing case study into the events of Monday 26th May 2025, by mapping the dispatch error across all semi-scheduled units for the 16:15 dispatch interval that afternoon.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A long-run trend of monthly average Contingency FCAS prices in NSW
Another short article with this trend from the ez2view ‘Trends Editor’ to summarise the overall trend of (monthly average) prices in the 8 x Contingency FCAS markets focused on the NSW region.
Stacking up: Unlocking multiple revenue streams in the NEM
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Guest Authored Posts
We need more research on storage trading
In this guest post, Greg Williams calls for more research into how storage bidding—particularly auto-rebidding—is reshaping price formation and competition as flexible assets take centre stage in the NEM.
Battery bidding is reshaping FCAS — But Demand Response remains a strategic asset
Paul Moore of Viotas look at recent supply-demand dynamics within the contingency FCAS markets and whether demand response can play a role.
Detailed Analysis
The Generator Statistical Digest 2023 (GSD2023) is released
It's Thursday 15th February 2024 and (in amongst the detailed analysis relating to Tue 13th Feb 2024 in Victoria) we're releasing the GSD2023 ... the Generator Statistical Digest for the 2023 calendar year.
Some *initial* headline questions following the transmission damage, unit trips & loss of load, initiated on Tuesday 13th February 2024
What happened yesterday (Tue 13th Feb 2024) in Victoria was a significant event in the history of the NEM - and the flow on effects will be felt for weeks and months (even years?)....
GSD 2023 Uncovers Features in FCAS Enablement and Bidding
The release of GSD2023 supports a deep dive into its 10-year FCAS history section. We inspect three units of differing technology and make use of the data extract to uncover trends in participation.
Putting Monday’s record-breaking demand in QLD into context (22nd Jan 2024)
Still trying to make sense of what did and didn't happen in QLD last night, Dan Lee provides some context to how yesterday's record-breaking demand compares to similar historical events.
The early wind farms reaching 20 years: how are they performing?
With Challicum Hills Wind Farm recently celebrating its 20th anniversary, Dan Lee takes a look into the long-term trend of technical and commercial performance of the oldest wind farms in the NEM.
Dan Lee’s reflections about ‘the year that was in 2023’ via the WattClarity insight service
Yesterday (Thu 22nd Dec 2023), Dan Lee posted a summary of WattClarity service through 2023 on our company website. Today I'm sharing that with WattClarity readers here.
Case Study (Part 2) of Low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by...
Case Study (part 1) of low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Mon 3rd and Tue 4th July 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.