Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
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A map showing the geographic spread of semi-scheduled dispatch errors on Monday 26th May 2025
Dan adds to our ongoing case study into the events of Monday 26th May 2025, by mapping the dispatch error across all semi-scheduled units for the 16:15 dispatch interval that afternoon.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A long-run trend of monthly average Contingency FCAS prices in NSW
Another short article with this trend from the ez2view ‘Trends Editor’ to summarise the overall trend of (monthly average) prices in the 8 x Contingency FCAS markets focused on the NSW region.
Stacking up: Unlocking multiple revenue streams in the NEM
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Across 188 Semi-Scheduled DUIDs – Dispatch Error at 16:15 on Monday 26th May 2025
This is my second article today relating to events on Monday 26th May 2025 - with this article looking at Dispatch Error for each of the 188 x Semi-Scheduled units to 16:15.
Noting the dust storm on Monday 26th May 2025 – and impact on electricity supply-demand
Belatedly noting the dust storm that past through South Australia on Monday 26th May 2025, which Andrew Miskelly of Weatherzone documented in a video on Bsky.
Evening price volatility in NSW on Sunday 1st June 2025
A short note with a NEMwatch snapshot at 17:15 to mark some low-level price action in NSW on Sunday 1st June 2025
Callide C back online, Sunday 1st June 2025
A short article to note that Callide C3 came back online in the early hours of Sunday morning 1st June 2025.
A trend of aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ for each Semi-Scheduled fuel type on Monday 26th May 2025
Let’s now return to Monday 26th May 2025 to look at aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ across both Semi-Scheduled fuel types for all dispatch intervals in the day.
Guest Authored Posts
Runway cost allocation – ready for liftoff?
Allan O'Neil unpacks a proposal under consideration by the AEMC to apply “runway” cost allocation to contingency FCAS, explaining how this could materially change who pays for frequency security in the NEM.
What the hail is happening with Brisbane’s weather?
Anthony Cornelius from WeatherWatch explains the climate drivers behind Southeast Queensland’s unusually intense 2025 hail season — context that matters for those tracking how extreme weather is evolving and influencing the energy market.
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