An initial exploration of QLD’s spike at 14:30 on Thursday 21st December 2023
An initial look at the ‘out of the blue’ price spike in QLD at 14:30 on Thursday 21st December 2023.
Very fast FCAS markets continue to grow
Six observations from a chart summarising how capacity, availability and volumes enabled have changed over the early phase of the very fast FCAs markets, since commencement on October 9, 2023.
Dan Lee’s reflections about ‘the year that was in 2023’ via the WattClarity insight service
Yesterday (Thu 22nd Dec 2023), Dan Lee posted a summary of WattClarity service through 2023 on our company website. Today I’m sharing that with WattClarity readers here.
Barron Gorge Hydro Station damaged and offline after flooding from Cyclone Japser in North Queensland
Flooding from Cyclone Jasper has damaged part of the Barron Gorge Hydro Power Station in North Queensland, forcing its units offline until further assessment and repairs.
Consultation on ‘Orderly Exit Management Framework Framework’ for coal units
A short article (day after release) about the proposed ‘Orderly Exit Management Framework’ for coal units
AEMO forecast for LOR2 in NSW on Tuesday 19th December 2023
A short initial note about AEMO’s currently forecast LOR2 for NSW next Tuesday 19th December 2023.
AEMO released draft of 2024 Integrated System Plan … cue the media headlines
It’s Friday 15th December 2023 and the AEMO has published its draft of the 2024 ISP, in time for everyone’s Christmas reading list
Belated notice from the AEMO about RERT contracted for yesterday (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
It’s Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
Disallowed flow north on VIC1-NSW1 another significant factor in tight supply-demand in NSW + QLD
A quick look at how restrictions in southern NSW meant that Victoria could not export to NSW through the afternoon … hence contributing to the tight supply-demand situation.
Wind production ramps down in NSW, coincident with Increased Demand (and then Actual LOR2)
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in ‘Market Demand’.
Actual LOR2 in NSW from 17:30 on Thursday 14th December 2023
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
NSW ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 13,000MW – and IRPM drops – but prices stay moderate
NSW ‘Market Demand’ exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
NSW ‘Market Demand’ squeezes 12,500MW as price passes $500/MWh
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO ‘intending to commence’ negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW – for this afternoon/evening.
RERT negotiations commenced in NSW by AEMO on Thursday 14th December 2023
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ over 11,000MW – and forecast evening demand warming back towards 13,000MW
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
A quick look at forecasts for available wind generation in NSW for this evening 14th December 2023
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
Forecast supply-demand for NSW for Thursday evening 14th December 2023 remains tight
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
AEMO requests generator recall information in NSW and QLD for this Thursday 14th December 2023
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.