An initial review of demand response on Wednesday 11 June 2025
Wednesday evening 11th June 2025 was a period of tight supply-demand balance, hence energy price volatility – and so this article reviews the response of the demand-side.
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An initial walk through bidding during the volatility on Wednesday 11th June 2025
We take a first look at bidding across all units (aggregated up) for Wednesday 11th June 2025, with the volatile evening period of particular interest.
Brief summary of outcomes (Price, Demand and IRPM) for Wednesday evening 11th June 2025
We start with this colour-coded tabular record of a 4-hour period (16:00 to 20:00 NEM time on Wednesday 11th June 2025) as a reference point for further analysis of the evening volatility.
Battery bidding is reshaping FCAS — But Demand Response remains a strategic asset
Paul Moore of Viotas look at recent supply-demand dynamics within the contingency FCAS markets and whether demand response can play a role.
High prices and tight spare supply, as NEM-wide IRPM drops down to 11.48% on Wednesday 11th June 2025
Cold weather this evening has brought prices above $7,000/MWh and tight reserve margins across the NEM.
Prices up in every region, on Wednesday evening 11th June 2025
A very quick note for Wednesday 11th June 2025 with this snapshot from NEMwatch at 17:00 (NEM time) to record the start of some elevated prices.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
AEMO notes increased forecast for Unserved Energy (USE) in QLD due to network outages scheduled between Tue 17th to Fri 20th June 2025
Yesterday (Tuesday 10th June 2025) at 14:21 the AEMO published MN127491 that noted 'The increase in USE in Queensland ... is primarily driven by network outages scheduled between 17 and 20 June 2025'.
Cold winter evening driving NEM-wide demand higher, such as on Tuesday 10th June 2025
A cold winter evening (Tuesday 10th June 2025) is driving electricity demand higher, as captured in this snapshot from NEMwatch at the 18:10 dispatch interval.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Guest Authored Posts
Modelling prices in a post-coal NEM: When batteries dominate the market
Paul Bandarian and David Leitch from ITK Services share modelling results for a post-coal NEM, arguing today’s electricity prices can be maintained if batteries become the dominant price-forming technology and solar is structurally supported.
Runway cost allocation – ready for liftoff?
Allan O'Neil unpacks a proposal under consideration by the AEMC to apply “runway” cost allocation to contingency FCAS, explaining how this could materially change who pays for frequency security in the NEM.
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