Price start to climb in (QLD and) NSW on Tuesday 17th December 2024
A short article with this NEMwatch snapshot at 15:20 (NEM time) to highlight that spot prices in NSW and QLD have started to climb, but demand forecast for NSW is moderating.
Victoria soared to 47°C yesterday, for first time since Black Summer
Weatherzone’s Ant Sharwood shares insights into yesterday’s extreme temperatures in Victoria.
Putting Victoria’s high demand levels (on Monday 16th December 2024) in longer-term context
Electricity Demand in Victoria on Monday 16th December 2024 reached quite high levels … but they were not ‘all time maximum’ (i.e if looking at ‘Market Demand’ or ‘Grid Demand’).
Very fast FCAS, 2024 in review
A 2024 review of the trend in the very fast FCAS services captures enablements, availabilities and costs.
A quick initial review of bids, for Monday 16th December 2024
Monday 16th December 2024 was an interesting day in the NEM for a number of reasons. So we’ll use the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view to do this quick initial review and then, depending what we see, determine whether we want to invest further time to delve deeper…
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ peaks at 33,674MW at 17:30 on Monday 16th December 2024
A short after-the-fact note to confirm NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ was (as predicted) highest since 31st January 2020 (almost 4 years ago) … in a case where AEMO Operational Forecasting team nailed the demand in forecasts more than 3 days earlier. Take a bow!
NEM-wide market demand indeed peaks at a four-year high on Monday afternoon, 16th Dec 2024
NEM-wide market demand peaked at a four-year high on Monday afternoon, landing at 33,674 MW during the 17:30 dispatch interval.
Many DUIDs (esp Western VIC and Western NSW) subject to bound constraints, at 16:20 on Monday 16th December 2024
Here’s a single snapshot from ez2view at the 16:15 dispatch interval to illustrate widespread constraint limitations in western NSW and western VIC.
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ is trending above forecast (to 15:45) – in part because of …
In this short article we include a single snapshot of ez2view at the 15:45 dispatch interval with three copies of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget to show actual levels of ‘Market Demand’ are running above forecasts.
‘Underlying Demand’ above 38,000MW … on Monday 16th December 2024
It might be useful for readers to reflect on the following snapshot from NEMwatch at the 14:00 dispatch interval (NEM time) to see Underlying Demand above 38,000MW.
Looking ahead (prior to 9am), to Monday evening 16th December 2024
Last Friday afternoon 13th December 2024 we wrote that ‘NEM-wide demand on Monday 16th December forecast to be highest in almost 4 years’. So I thought this morning we’d use a couple widgets in ez2view to take a look forward to the forecasts for Monday 16th December 2024 late afternoon and evening to see what’s changed …
NEM-wide demand on Monday 16th December forecast to be highest in almost 4 years
As at 13:45 on Friday 13th December, the peak demand (measured as ‘Market Demand’ ) forecast for Monday is 33,718MW in the half-hour ending 18:00 (NEM time). In the last 17 years there have been only 9 months seeing higher level of demand.
Warnings of possible LOR3 (i.e. Load Shedding) for Mon 16th and Mon 17th December 2024 cancelled … at least in (large) part due to delay in Outage on Line 17
At 13:06 NEM time the AEMO published MN121831 and 121833 noting the cancellation of the forecast LOR3 that was in place for both Monday 16th December 2024 and Tuesday 17th December 2024.
Some things that have changed, in the outlook for Mon 16th and Tue 17th December 2024 … and what’s not (yet) changed?!
Earlier this morning, we posted about deeper LOR3 forecast for Mon 16th and Tue 17th Dec 2024 … and promised to take a look at ‘what’s changed?’. That’s what we do here.
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday 12th December 2024
We noted as it happened (e.g. hard to ignore a steady run of SMS alerts) , but only belatedly publish this record of evening volatility on Thursday evening 12th December 2024.
Friday morning forecasts for load shedding (i.e. LOR3) in NSW on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th December grow more extreme
We’ll explore ‘what’s changed?’ more in subsequent articles – but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme …
Victoria’s first 45°C in four years on the horizon
Ben Domensino of WeatherZone looks at forecasts for temperature, wind and bushfire risk early next week – with Victoria set for extreme weather.
Standalone solar and wind dominate list of 19 successful projects from latest CIS tender
Nineteen projects were announced as winners in the government’s CIS announcement yesterday – including seven standalone solar farms and six standalone wind farms.
AEMO publishes ‘NEM Local Temperature Alerts for NSW, SA, VIC from 12 Dec 2024 to 16 Dec 2024’
Topical, given forecast load shedding for NSW on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th December, is the latest high temperature alerts for large parts of the NEM on 14th, 15th and 16th December 2024.
Load Shedding … i.e. LOR3 (briefly) *also* forecast for NSW on Tuesday 17th December 2024
We also now have a forecast for LOR3 in NSW for Tuesday 17th December 2024.