Scarce use of aggregate dispatch conformance to-date
No Mixed aggregate dispatch groups have been registered.
All Posts
AEMO notes ‘Non-credible contingency event’ at Jeeralang
No sooner had we noted that ‘AEMO changes mind, and directs Murray instead (to run as syncon) for System Strength in Victoria on Wednesday 15th October 2025’ then we receive MN129618 at 09:00 that helps...
AEMO changes mind, and directs Murray instead … but this was also short-lived?!
Less than an hour after directing Jeeralang (for System Strength in Victoria), AEMO changes its mind and directs Murray instead. Though this was also short-lived!
AEMO issues directions to units at Jeeralang Power Station, for System Strength in Victoria (Wednesday 15th October 2025)
As AEMO had telegraphed yesterday, just after 08:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 15th October 2025, the AEMO issued Directions to various units at EnergyAustralia’s Jeeralang Power Station for System Strength in Victoria.
Are CIS-ters doin’ it for themselves? Part 4: Policy lessons highlighted by the Nelson Review
In the final part of our four-part CIS series, we zoom out to examine what government-backed Contract-for-Difference schemes are really achieving — drawing on policy lessons from the Nelson Review.
AEMO flags possible intervention tomorrow (Wed 15th Oct 2025) for System Strength in Victoria
Worth noting two market notices today flagging possible intervention because of System Strength issues in Victoria tomorrow (Wednesday 15th October 2025).
Small spike in Mainland Frequency, with (apparent) ~400MW trip of demand in Queensland on Tuesday morning 14th October 2025
It appears that there was some large(ish) trip in demand somewhere on the Queensland network, given the spike in frequency at ~07:28 on Tuesday 14th October 2025.
Drop in ‘Market Demand’ in QLD on Tuesday morning 14th October 2025
A short note to record a large-size drop in ‘Market Demand’ in the Queensland region on Tuesday morning 14th October 2025, as captured in this ez2view ‘Notification’ widget alert at 07:31 (NEM time).
ER03 makes its way back online, Sunday evening 12th October 2025
Given that we’ve written about that outage several times before, worth noting that Eraring Unit 3 came back online Sunday evening 12th October 2025.
An initial look at the Spot Price spike in NSW at 17:55 on Friday 10th October 2025
There was a short-lived (but interesting) price spike for ENERGY in the NSW region on Friday evening 10th October 2025. Here's a first look.
Guest Authored Posts
How the NEM BESS fleet is operating on peak days, and how to be a savvy operator
In this guest article, Matt Grover from Fluence draws on operational data and real-world trading experience to unpack how Australia’s grid-scale batteries performed across three June 2025 peak days — and what capabilities belong...
Why Gladstone’s prospective closure reveals a new kind of NEM failure
With the Queensland state government’s new energy roadmap due out tomorrow, Greg Elkins highlights how distorted signals and state interventions expose a new NEM failure.
Detailed Analysis
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for solar units, Q1 2025
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Is the price right? A historical exploration into the NEM’s price cap
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.