Administered Pricing for FCAS services in South Australia ended on Sunday 24th August 2025 … so what’s next?
On Sunday 24th August 2025, Administered Pricing for FCAS in South Australia ended ... when will the ‘S-TBTU’ constraint set re-emerge?
All Posts
An updated tabular list of instances of large AggROT across Semi-Scheduled units
Earlier today we trended the incidence of large Aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units. In this updated tabulated list, we list each of the largest instances from January 2024 to June 2025.
An updated long-range trend of large instances of Aggregate Raw Off-Target (AggROT) across all Semi-Scheduled units
It's ~18 months since we took a look at the trend of large instances of Aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units. In this article we update the analysis with data to 30th June...
Three broader questions (re)triggered by the Frequency Spike on Tuesday 19th August 2025
The (concerning) frequency spike across the NEM in the middle of the day (Tuesday 19th August 2025) has triggered many proximate questions - understandable - but also has raised these 3 Broader Questions.
AEMO releases 2025 ESOO on Thursday 21st August 2025
On Thursday 21st August 2025 (a week earlier than I'd anticipated) the AEMO has released its 2025 ESOO.
AGL considering State Government request to keep Torrens Island open for two more years
Amongst the news articles this morning that are energy related was one noting a possible delay to the closure of Torrens Island. We take a quick look...
Unit deviations from target on Tuesday 19th August 2025
It appears it was unit availability used to set the target for dispatch that went awry, rather than unit output.
The increasingly stochastic and volatile NEM
Oliver Nunn from Endgame Economics argues that we must begin to think about the distribution of prices in the NEM as a function of weather.
A ~50-day view of rising spurts of volatility in the LOWER1SEC FCAS market in South Australia
With Administered Pricing in South Australia ongoing today, we take a longer-term look (across the past ~50 days) in the escalating pressure on Cumulative Price for LOWER1SEC FCAS in South Australia.
Network outage on Tailem Bend – Tungkillo 275kV line ended Tue 19th Aug, but Administered Pricing Continues into Wed 20th Aug (part 3)
Part 3 in an evolving series of articles about a series of the network outage(s) on the Tailem Bend - Tungkillo 275kV line that's driven LOWER1SEC prices through the roof and triggered Administered Pricing...
Guest Authored Posts
The increasingly stochastic and volatile NEM
Oliver Nunn from Endgame Economics argues that we must begin to think about the distribution of prices in the NEM as a function of weather.
Not all renewable projects are created equal: Why approval times vary dramatically across Australia
Alice Matthews examines how approval times for renewables vary widely by state and technology — with NSW wind projects facing the longest delays.
Detailed Analysis
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Four days in the NEM in four minutes
Dan shares a short time-lapse video which demonstrates four days worth of activity in the NEM, highlighting the impact of network congestion in QLD and NSW.
How did Cyclone Alfred impact electricity demand?
By day-end on the Friday the 7th demand levels were down more than 40% in the Gold Coast. Other areas were also impacted.
Three headline observations, about the use of proxies for System Frequency in Frequency Control mechanisms
Various authors have shared articles about frequency, frequency control and Regulation FCAS in recent times (including 6 from Linton). Here's three things that jumped out to me in these pieces of analysis.
Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
NEMDE nightmares – parallel pathways and clashing constraints
Prompted by a question by a client in a training session for a new ez2view user, guest author Allan O'Neil has written 2,940 words to explain the price outcome in one particular dispatch interval...
The state-of-charge for 2024: The highs and lows of the big battery boom
Following on from a similar review this time last year, Dan provides an updated look at the economics and performances within the NEM's big battery fleet, making use of our recently released GSD2024.
Indicators of solar farm performance with GSD2024
Seeking indications of possible performance at solar sites announced in the CIS tender of 2024, we inspect statistics of nearby solar farms using the GSD2024.