The forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024 grows more extreme…
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.
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CFA warns of ‘Catastrophic and extreme fire danger’ for parts of Victoria tomorrow (Wed 28th Feb 2024)
A short note looking at CFA warnings of 'Extreme Bushfire Risk' for locations in Victoria on Wednesday 28th February 2024.
Stubborn forecasts for LOR2 (low reserve condition) for NSW for Thursday evening 29th February 2024
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024
Volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday 26th February 2024
A short record of evening volatility in Queensland and NSW on Monday 26th February 2024.
Tuesday 31st October 2023 sees the only two instances (in Q4, and all year) of AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units < -500MW
Also from GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4, the particular case of Tuesday 31st October 2023 is also worth sharing (and a broad audience understanding).
Large instances of collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units on Sunday 24th December 2023
Returning a focus to GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4, here's a particular example from Sunday 24th December 2023 worth sharing (and a broad audience understanding).
Thursday 29th February 2024 could be a (relatively) high demand day in NSW
A quick look forward (from Sun 25th Feb) towards Thursday 29th Feb 2024 in NSW
Belatedly noticing slight slippage in return to service for Callide C3
Twelve days ago there was news about a delay to return to service for Callide C3 (now to 31st March 2024), but we'd missed it.
Aggregate Dispatch Error across all Semi-Scheduled units (NEM-wide) throughout Tuesday 13th February 2024
Looking back at Tuesday 13th February 2024 there's consistently large aggregate under-performance (compared to Target) across all Semi-Scheduled units in the NEM through daylight hours. The reason for the increased procurement of Regulation Raise.
Yo-yo prices in QLD and NSW on Friday evening 23rd February 2024
It's Friday evening 23rd Feb 2024 and spot prices are bouncing around like crazy.
Guest Authored Posts
Modelling prices in a post-coal NEM: When batteries dominate the market
Paul Bandarian and David Leitch from ITK Services share modelling results for a post-coal NEM, arguing today’s electricity prices can be maintained if batteries become the dominant price-forming technology and solar is structurally supported.
Runway cost allocation – ready for liftoff?
Allan O'Neil unpacks a proposal under consideration by the AEMC to apply “runway” cost allocation to contingency FCAS, explaining how this could materially change who pays for frequency security in the NEM.
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