In the fourth instalment of this ongoing case study, Dan Lee maps the locations and contributions of the semi-scheduled units that contributed to the +861MW Aggregate Raw Off-Target that occurred on the afternoon of October 27th 2022.
On 6th April 2023 the AEMO published this preliminary report into the brief market suspension that occurred in NSW on 17th March 2023.
AFR and the Australian (and elsewhere?) there are reports of the co-owner of Callide C (with CS Energy) being placed in voluntary administration.
A just-announced AEMO market notice has declared a temporary suspension of the NSW market.
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look at the source of the Dispatch Interval Availability forecasts for these units at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (i.e. Self-Forecast or something else, incl AWEFS/ASEFS).
In Part 2 of this Case Study, we look at those 15 x Semi-Scheduled units highlighted with large deviations (mostly under-performance) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 in order to understand more.
In Part 1 of this Case Study, we start to look at the large collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units (i.e. Wind and Large Solar) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022. More to come in subsequent parts…
A short note following on from the Scheduling Error experienced by AEMO on 10th August 2022.
A short article today noting the additional delays in return-to-service expectations for both Callide C3 and C4.
Dan Lee tracks the demand forecasts against the actual outcome in QLD last Friday afternoon. The final result was as much as ∼1,000MW lower than the maximum forecast of demand published by the AEMO, which alludes to the inherent difficulty of electricity market forecasting.
The forecast for Friday (3 February 2023) evening’s demand was that a new all-time maximum would occur and a lack of reserve was expected. To maintain the grid in a reliable operating state AEMO signaled to the market that the…
(Not even) close … but no cigar. Actual level of Market Demand in QLD for 17:30 is about 10% below what the most extreme forecast thought it might be.
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in ‘successfully’ forecasting electricity demand!
Second price spike in QLD today above $1,000/MWh … with more to continue?
With demand beginning to rise sharply output at Queensland’s four wind farms has been muted so far this afternoon.
The rain and cloud cover is delivering (amongst other things) a faster-than-expected drop in aggregate solar production in QLD.
The RERT has been dispatched for 5:30PM this afternoon in Queensland
QLD may be down 200MW of available generation with record demand currently being forecast for late this afternoon.
Another article today presenting 12 hours of history of System Frequency (to ~14:00 on Friday 3rd February 2023) with a few questions added. Comments welcome!
An AEMO market notice from yesterday afternoon declares that an extra 50MW has been made available on the QNI interconnector.