Here’s an updated view of AEMO’s forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ across the NEM (and Victoria) for Mon 3rd Feb and Tue 4th Feb 2025 – from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 12:55 dispatch (NEM time) on Sun 2nd Feb 2025.
A quick note, recording some late afternoon volatility in South Australia.
Coincident with the walk home this afternoon/evening, the ‘Notifications’ widget in one of our display copies of ez2view alerted us to a large drop of ‘Market Demand’ in the NSW region … at a 937MW drop in the 5 minutes to 17:15 NEM time, so I have taken an initial look
Following our earlier article from ~24 hours earlier, at look at ez2view shows that it’s been ‘hotting up’ for demand forecasts for Monday 3rd February 2025.
Dan looks at some recent and peculiar auto-clamping behaviour of interconnectors, and walks through the market arrangements causing these occurrences.
A quick look (at Thursday morning 30th Jan 2025) out the coming week in AEMO’s ST PASA forecasts.
An updated view (at 13:55) of the NSW region on a hot summer’s afternoon on Tue 28th Jan 2025.
A short article looking ahead to the afternoon/evening for NSW on Tuesday 28th January 2025.
We’ve checked with NEMwatch in this snapshot for the 18:35 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Friday 24th January 2025 and we see that the ‘Market Demand’ reached 10,897MW (target for the 17:45 dispatch interval).
Contemplating the end of the day, and looming sunset, a quick look at NEMwatch at 16:45 NEM time to see the ‘Market Demand’ at 10,543MW and climbing.
Whilst we’re waiting to see where ‘Market Demand’ lands for Friday 24th January 2025 (we might report that later), I was curious in terms of supply-side performance of units over the past 4 days in Queensland – including the extreme demand period of Wednesday 22nd January 2025…
An updated view (via ‘Forecast Convergence’ in ez2view) for forecast demand for QLD on Friday afternoon/evening 24th January 2025 … and reintroduction for ‘forecast LOR2’.
Here’s a 3-day trend chart from ez2view to look at the trended half-hourly* fuel mix in the Queensland region including Wednesday 22nd January 2025.
Dan shares an updated look at our forecast convergence widget for this coming Friday afternoon, in light of the record breaking demand in the region earlier this evening.
Worth a short note to highlight that the AEMO published MN123598 at 19:44 to flag cancellation of ‘Actual LOR2’ in QLD.
One of our ez2view alerts (i.e. the one for ‘coal unit switches off’) configured in the ‘Notifications’ widget triggered at 19:31 (NEM time) on Wednesday evening 22nd January 2025 to show GSTONE2 coming offline.
Given the very tight supply-demand balance in the QLD region on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 (both very low IRPM and also ‘Actual LOR2’) it’s worth a quick look at this snapshot of NEM Mainland Frequency over the past 2 hours (to 18:53 NEM time), as measured in our Brisbane office
So only seconds after(?) we’ve posted this third article, the AEMO publishes MN123594 at 18:43:09 noting ‘Actual LOR2’ in QLD on Wed 22nd Jan 2025.
Third article this evening (Wed 22nd Jan 2025) as the supply-demand balance in QLD tightens first with the sun setting (so disappearance of Solar PV injections, whilst Underlying Demand remains high).
Following from QLD’s new all-time-maximum level of ‘Market Demand’ we take a quick look at actual levels, compared to AEMO’s earlier (P30 predispatch) forecasts.