In this short article we include a single snapshot of ez2view at the 15:45 dispatch interval with three copies of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget to show actual levels of ‘Market Demand’ are running above forecasts.
It might be useful for readers to reflect on the following snapshot from NEMwatch at the 14:00 dispatch interval (NEM time) to see Underlying Demand above 38,000MW.
Last Friday afternoon 13th December 2024 we wrote that ‘NEM-wide demand on Monday 16th December forecast to be highest in almost 4 years’. So I thought this morning we’d use a couple widgets in ez2view to take a look forward to the forecasts for Monday 16th December 2024 late afternoon and evening to see what’s changed …
As at 13:45 on Friday 13th December, the peak demand (measured as ‘Market Demand’ ) forecast for Monday is 33,718MW in the half-hour ending 18:00 (NEM time). In the last 17 years there have been only 9 months seeing higher level of demand.
At 13:06 NEM time the AEMO published MN121831 and 121833 noting the cancellation of the forecast LOR3 that was in place for both Monday 16th December 2024 and Tuesday 17th December 2024.
Earlier this morning, we posted about deeper LOR3 forecast for Mon 16th and Tue 17th Dec 2024 … and promised to take a look at ‘what’s changed?’. That’s what we do here.
We noted as it happened (e.g. hard to ignore a steady run of SMS alerts) , but only belatedly publish this record of evening volatility on Thursday evening 12th December 2024.
We’ll explore ‘what’s changed?’ more in subsequent articles – but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme …
Topical, given forecast load shedding for NSW on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th December, is the latest high temperature alerts for large parts of the NEM on 14th, 15th and 16th December 2024.
We also now have a forecast for LOR3 in NSW for Tuesday 17th December 2024.
Third article already this morning looking ahead to what’s forecast for Monday 16th December 2024 … longer duration (and deeper) LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW + also LOR2 in Victoria.
With AEMO forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW for periods of time on Monday 16th December 2024, in this WattClarity article we take a first look. More to come *as time permits* (and as situations change, etc…).
“Surely not again so soon!?” … was my first response at reading MN121734 published at 00:42 (NEM time) on Thursday 12th December 2024, forecasting LOR3 (a.k.a. load shedding) in NSW for Monday 16th December 2024.
Because it was the focus of discussion and deliberation recently in the QUD19/2021 QLD Class Action, here’s a view of bidding of all suppliers in QLD on 18th February 2016.
Reserve levels and curtailment estimates of November 27 indicate looming transmission challenges for the future.
No sooner had we hit
In Victoria on Monday afternoon 9th December 2024 we see ‘Market Demand’ has ramped up by 1,802MW in 25 minutes (including a ramp of 903MW in 10 minutes). Yikes!
Oliver Nunn of Endgame Analytics provides this summary of NSW price, demand and generation trends to provide context about what has happened in the region over the past several weeks.
Eraring unit 2 came offline prior to 21:46 NEM time on Sunday evening 8th December 2024 as captured in this alert triggered by the ‘Notifications’ widget in ez2view at the time. Here we take a quick look.
A quick snapshot of some volatility in Contingency Raise FCAS Prices in QLD spanning Wednesday 9th October 2024, Thursday 10th October 2024, Friday 11th October 2024.