Price volatility in NSW on Monday evening 20th May 2024
A short record of some evening volatility in NSW on Monday 20th May 2024.
Market Operations
Softening of LOR forecasts for NSW in ST PASA and P30
Since the update Saturday morning, the Market Notices (relating to forecast LOR* in NSW on [some day]) have continued … here’s an update.
Case Study of 14:15 on Thursday 22nd February 2024 (large collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units)
In part 2 of a Case Study about Thursday 22nd February 2024 – specifically looking at Aggregate Dispatch Error across all Semi-Scheduled units (and in this part 2 looking just at 14:15).
Aggregate Dispatch Error across all Semi-Scheduled units (NEM-wide) throughout Thursday 22nd February 2024
Finding some time to make some progress in compiling GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q1, here’s a short Case Study of Thursday 22nd February 2024 (a day that saw significant collective under-performance of Semi-Scheduled units with respect to their Targets).
Both Eraring 2 and Vales Point 6 will be offline for a few more days
An early afternoon look (Sat 18th May 2024) about the delays in return to service for the forced outages at two NSW coal units (Eraring unit 2 and Vales Point unit 6).
Saturday morning wrap of forecast LOR conditions in NSW
Following numerous Market Notices overnight pertaining to Forecast LOR2 (or LOR1) in NSW for a number of coming days, here’s a summary on Saturday morning 18th May 2024 using ‘Forecast Convergence’ from ez2view.
AEMO publishes MN116654 for ‘forecast LOR2’ in NSW for Sunday evening 19th May 2024
Another ‘forecast LOR2’ notice from AEMO … this time looking at Sunday evening 19th may 2024.
Vales Point unit 6 trips offline on Friday 17th May 2024
A quick look at the trip of Vales Point unit 6 on Friday afternoon 17th May 2024.
Looking closer at curtailment across wind farms in NSW last Wednesday 8th May 2024
A deeper dive into the geographic spread of wind farm generation and curtailment last Wednesday evening including a look into wind conditions and network topology.
AEMO ‘forecast LOR2’ for Monday morning 20th May 2024 currently growing tighter
An update (via Market Notice at 11:21) on the forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday morning 20th May 2024.
Some yo-yo action in NSW baseload electricity futures
An update on LinkedIn by an electricity retail broker (Choice Energy) prompts this update on NSW electricity futures price movements.
MT PASA DUID Availability confirms Eraring unit 2 offline till Tuesday 21st May 2024
A new data update from AEMO confirms the suspicion that (based on current expectations) Eraring unit 2 is now offline until Tuesday 21st May 2024.
AEMO updates forecast for supply-demand balance on Monday morning 20th May 2024 … now forecast LOR2
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
… but ER02 return to service hit a snag (Thu 16th May 2024) – now possibly out until Tue 21st May 2024
Yesterday afternoon (Thu 16th May) Eraring unit 2 commenced return to service. But it hit a snag that evening, came offline, and might be off for a few more days?
Eraring Unit 2 commences return-to-service startup, but ….
On Thursday afternoon 16th May 2024, Eraring unit 2 (after a 15-day outage due to a boiler tube leak) has commenced the return-to-service process.
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about ‘another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 – the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
So how much did Eraring Power Station supply, of the NSW electricity consumption, over 5 days to 11th May 2024?
Following a reminder in a phone call today, I’ve updated the date range in a NEMreview trend previously used in February to look at percentage of Underlying Demand in NSW supplied for each half hour over the 5 day period Monday 6th May 2024 to Friday 10th May 2024 (which includes 3 volatile periods leading to Administered Pricing).
Bruce Mountain’s commentary about Eraring (and the Energy Transition) is worth a read
Today (Wed 15th May 2024) Bruce Mountain writes an opinion piece in the Australian about the recent run of Administered Pricing in NSW, and what it means for the looming closure of Eraring and the energy transition.
Administered Pricing ends in NSW from 04:05 Wednesday 15th May 2024
as expected, Administered Pricing has ended in NSW at 04:00 on Wednesday 15th May 2024
Will the rolling Cumulative Price for NSW fall back below the CPT on Tuesday evening 14th May 2024
A short (early afternoon) look at the progression of Cumulative Price in NSW, almost 7 days after the evening volatility on Tuesday 7th May 2024 started the climb to the Cumulative Price Threshold.