AEMO now forecasting possible LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Wednesday 27th November 2024
The most recent ST PASA forecast now shows a sliver of forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecast Load Shedding) for the NSW region on Wed 27th Nov 2024
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The forecasts for LORx in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have been dialled down considerably … why is that the case?
In the >36 hours since an article on Wednesday the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have become less strident. We start to look at why…
Here’s a few things to watch, w.r.t. the forecast tight supply-demand balance in NSW (and QLD) for early next week
In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024.
It’s back! Forecast LOR3 for NSW on Monday 26th November 2024
It should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
AEMO notes cancellation of forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled … but only just.
AEMO updates forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 (less severe)
AEMO’s latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not disappeared).
Bayswater Unit 4 begins to return to service – Wednesday morning 20th November 2024
Given forecasts for early next week in NSW, it’s some welcome news to see that the BW04 unit has commenced its return to service process.
AEMO publishes ‘Request for Generator Recall Information for the period from 25/11/2024 to 26/11/2024 for NSW Region’
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
Frequency drop coincident with trip of Callide C3 unit, on Wednesday morning 20th November 2024
A short note to flag the apparent trip of Callide C3 just prior to 06:35 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024.
Updated forecast for LOR3 for Tuesday 26th November 2024 grows more severe
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
Load shedding (LOR3) projected for NSW on 26 November 2024
A LOR3 is projected for NSW on 26 November 2024.
Interruption to electricity market data on 19 November, 2024
An interruption to the NEM wholesale market data service resulted in a delay of data to industry today, 19 November, 2024.
AEMO MT PASA update on 19th November 2024 notes Low Reserve Conditions for NSW and Victoria for summer 2024-25
On Tuesday morning 19th November 2024 the AEMO MN120612 warns of forecast Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria.
AEMO updates forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024
At 04:05 on Tue 19th November 2024 the AEMO published MN120652 noting a forecast LOR2 condition for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024.
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday 18th November 2024
A short record of some evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday evening 18th November 2024 … with the ‘N-MNYS_5_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set a familiar factor.
Burst of volatility in QLD and NSW, on Friday evening 15th November 2024
A very quick record of evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Friday 15th November 2024.
With YWPS1 and LYA2 back online, Victorian directions for System Strength cancelled
On Friday morning 15th November 2024 we see the return to service of both YWPS1 and LYA2 – coincident with the cancellation of Victorian directions for System Strength.
Why the directions (to 4 units) with 6 coal-fired units still online in Victoria?
We (and others) wondered, why the direction (especially for 4 units) to replace the System Strength from the ‘missing’ coal units?
Loy Yang A2 joins three other coal units in VIC offline
We’ve only just published ‘AEMO directs 4 units on in Victoria, to cover System Strength shortfall’ … noting that, at that time, there were 3 coal units in Victoria offline.
Our ‘Notifications’ widget in ez2view has alerted us that Loy Yang A2 unit has also come offline shortly afterwards (just prior to 09:30 NEM time).
AEMO directs 4 units on in Victoria, to cover System Strength shortfall
On Thursday morning 14th November 2024, the AEMO has directed 4 different units to operate, to cover a potential system strength shortfall in the Victorian region.