Low ‘Market Demand’ … and Actual MSL1 … in Victoria on Sunday 22nd December 2024
A short article to record the incidence of the ‘Actual MSL1’ event for the VIC region, which AEMO noted in MN122399 at 11:16 on Sunday 22nd December 2024
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AEMO forecasts a (second ever?) MSL2-level ‘Minimum System Load’ for Victoria on Sunday 22nd December 2024
Worth noting MN122275 published at 15:51 on Thursday 19th December 2024 being what I believe might be the second-ever forecast for the tighter MSL2- level alert for the coming Sunday 22nd December 2024.
Planned network outage on Line 17 (Avon to Macarthur) commences on Wednesday morning 18th December 2024, as per the (deferred) plan
A short note to highlight that the alerting in ez2view has flagged that the (deferred) network outage (in the ‘N-X_AVMA_KCTX’ constraint set) commenced Wednesday morning 18th December 2024.
Part 2 in a review of bidding, on Monday 16th December 2024 (a focus on VIC Wind Farms)
We’ve posted ‘A quick initial review of bids, for Monday 16th December 2024’ early in the morning of the following day. In this follow-on article, we focus specifically on Wind Farms in Victoria – using ‘Bids & offers’ widget in ez2view to peel one more layer of the onion (and revealing more questions in the process).
Actual LOR1 eventuates in NSW on Tue afternoon 17th Dec 2024
Market Notice #122113 states that an actual LOR1 condition has eventuated in NSW, with prices and demand still fluctuating in the region at the time of writing.
Price start to climb in (QLD and) NSW on Tuesday 17th December 2024
A short article with this NEMwatch snapshot at 15:20 (NEM time) to highlight that spot prices in NSW and QLD have started to climb, but demand forecast for NSW is moderating.
Victoria soared to 47°C yesterday, for first time since Black Summer
Weatherzone’s Ant Sharwood shares insights into yesterday’s extreme temperatures in Victoria.
Putting Victoria’s high demand levels (on Monday 16th December 2024) in longer-term context
Electricity Demand in Victoria on Monday 16th December 2024 reached quite high levels … but they were not ‘all time maximum’ (i.e if looking at ‘Market Demand’ or ‘Grid Demand’).
A quick initial review of bids, for Monday 16th December 2024
Monday 16th December 2024 was an interesting day in the NEM for a number of reasons. So we’ll use the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view to do this quick initial review and then, depending what we see, determine whether we want to invest further time to delve deeper…
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ peaks at 33,674MW at 17:30 on Monday 16th December 2024
A short after-the-fact note to confirm NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ was (as predicted) highest since 31st January 2020 (almost 4 years ago) … in a case where AEMO Operational Forecasting team nailed the demand in forecasts more than 3 days earlier. Take a bow!
NEM-wide market demand indeed peaks at a four-year high on Monday afternoon, 16th Dec 2024
NEM-wide market demand peaked at a four-year high on Monday afternoon, landing at 33,674 MW during the 17:30 dispatch interval.
Many DUIDs (esp Western VIC and Western NSW) subject to bound constraints, at 16:20 on Monday 16th December 2024
Here’s a single snapshot from ez2view at the 16:15 dispatch interval to illustrate widespread constraint limitations in western NSW and western VIC.
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ is trending above forecast (to 15:45) – in part because of …
In this short article we include a single snapshot of ez2view at the 15:45 dispatch interval with three copies of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget to show actual levels of ‘Market Demand’ are running above forecasts.
‘Underlying Demand’ above 38,000MW … on Monday 16th December 2024
It might be useful for readers to reflect on the following snapshot from NEMwatch at the 14:00 dispatch interval (NEM time) to see Underlying Demand above 38,000MW.
Looking ahead (prior to 9am), to Monday evening 16th December 2024
Last Friday afternoon 13th December 2024 we wrote that ‘NEM-wide demand on Monday 16th December forecast to be highest in almost 4 years’. So I thought this morning we’d use a couple widgets in ez2view to take a look forward to the forecasts for Monday 16th December 2024 late afternoon and evening to see what’s changed …
NEM-wide demand on Monday 16th December forecast to be highest in almost 4 years
As at 13:45 on Friday 13th December, the peak demand (measured as ‘Market Demand’ ) forecast for Monday is 33,718MW in the half-hour ending 18:00 (NEM time). In the last 17 years there have been only 9 months seeing higher level of demand.
Warnings of possible LOR3 (i.e. Load Shedding) for Mon 16th and Mon 17th December 2024 cancelled … at least in (large) part due to delay in Outage on Line 17
At 13:06 NEM time the AEMO published MN121831 and 121833 noting the cancellation of the forecast LOR3 that was in place for both Monday 16th December 2024 and Tuesday 17th December 2024.
Some things that have changed, in the outlook for Mon 16th and Tue 17th December 2024 … and what’s not (yet) changed?!
Earlier this morning, we posted about deeper LOR3 forecast for Mon 16th and Tue 17th Dec 2024 … and promised to take a look at ‘what’s changed?’. That’s what we do here.
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday 12th December 2024
We noted as it happened (e.g. hard to ignore a steady run of SMS alerts) , but only belatedly publish this record of evening volatility on Thursday evening 12th December 2024.
Friday morning forecasts for load shedding (i.e. LOR3) in NSW on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th December grow more extreme
We’ll explore ‘what’s changed?’ more in subsequent articles – but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme …