In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024.
Read MoreIt should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled … but only just.
AEMO’s latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not disappeared).
Given forecasts for early next week in NSW, it’s some welcome news to see that the BW04 unit has commenced its return to service process.
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
A short note to flag the apparent trip of Callide C3 just prior to 06:35 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024.
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
A LOR3 is projected for NSW on 26 November 2024.
An interruption to the NEM wholesale market data service resulted in a delay of data to industry today, 19 November, 2024.
On Tuesday morning 19th November 2024 the AEMO MN120612 warns of forecast Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria.
At 04:05 on Tue 19th November 2024 the AEMO published MN120652 noting a forecast LOR2 condition for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024.
A short record of some evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday evening 18th November 2024 … with the ‘N-MNYS_5_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set a familiar factor.
A very quick record of evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Friday 15th November 2024.
On Friday morning 15th November 2024 we see the return to service of both YWPS1 and LYA2 – coincident with the cancellation of Victorian directions for System Strength.
We (and others) wondered, why the direction (especially for 4 units) to replace the System Strength from the ‘missing’ coal units?
We’ve only just published ‘AEMO directs 4 units on in Victoria, to cover System Strength shortfall’ … noting that, at that time, there were 3 coal units in Victoria offline.
Our ‘Notifications’ widget in ez2view has alerted us that Loy Yang A2 unit has also come offline shortly afterwards (just prior to 09:30 NEM time).
On Thursday morning 14th November 2024, the AEMO has directed 4 different units to operate, to cover a potential system strength shortfall in the Victorian region.
We earlier noted this ‘Significant (-786MW) drop in NSW demand, on Wednesday 13th November 2024’ … and, in response, a reader (KC) asked a question that inspired this article.
A short article on Wednesday afternoon, 13th November 2024 with this snapshot highlighting a drop in frequency on the mainland.