Trended daily aggregate wind output since January 2010
Prompted by what I’d seen in the (daily) periodic cycling of aggregate wind production recently, I took more of a look at what’s been apparent over time.
wind farm output
What’s been happening with Bald Hills Wind Farm
A brief look at what’s been happening at Bald Hills Wind Farm – over the 18 months since January 2019, but most particularly in the past couple weeks where output has dropped down near zero.
Reasonably widespread deviations delivers highest ‘aggregate Raw Off-Target’ for the 2019 year for ‘all Wind’
This is the 3rd of 4 Case Studies to follow on from the main article (summarising results across 105,120 dispatch intervals through 2019 for ‘all Coal’ and ‘all Wind’ groupings). In this case, let’s look at the ‘worst’ case, in aggregate, where wind units under-performed compared to dispatch targets.
Aggregate wind production peaked above 5,000MW for the first time (NEM-wide) – on Friday 1st May 2020
Quick notes about a new peak in wind farm output across the NEM that occurred on Friday evening last week (1st May 2020).
AEMO releases its first* ‘Renewable Integration Study’ on 30th April 2020
An article today providing links to the ‘Renewable Integration Study’ which the AEMO released today, and also to the headline media coverage I have seen on my quick scan this morning.
Out of the blue, an LOR2
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might have been expected, but it certainly wasn’t incident-free. A very…
AEMO speaks directly to Wind and Solar Farm operators – please alert us to temperature limitations on your assets
In what seems (to me) to be an extraordinary measure, AEMO speaks directly to the operators of Wind and Solar assets in the NEM, asking them to update the AEMO on the high-temperature limitations of their plant. How did it come to this?…
What happened yesterday (Fri 20th Dec 2019) in the Victorian Region? A first look…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Not-So-Quick review of price spike in South Australian region yesterday (Thu 19th Dec) evening
Took 2-3 times longer than planned (as there were a few different interesting observations that came out) but here is our initial – and perhaps only! – review of what happened in South Australia on Thursday 19th December 2019 (i.e. yesterday).
Which was that ‘mystery DUID’ that apparently ‘can’t stand the heat’*?
Returning to the challenge posed to readers in April 2019, to guess (or analytically determine!) which of the hundreds of units operating in the NEM showed such a severe limitation in output at high temperatures. It’s not what most people thought it was – far from it!
The death* of “baseload” and rise of “cycling”
A quick article highlighting how the trend in aggregate number of unit starts, across the whole of the NEM, highlights the scale of one of the core underlying changes (and challenges) facing us in the NEM’s energy transition.
Very preliminary review of Quantity and Quality of Rebids suggests some interesting details…
As part of the process of compilation of our Generator Report Card 2018, we’re delving into quite some detail into various aspects of generator bidding and re-bidding. Today I thought it might be useful to share some *very early and preliminary* observations that we’re starting to see when trending and categorising rebids.
2018 – the year fossil fuels began an inexorable decline
Guest author, Tristan Edis, takes a look at the changing pattern of generation by fuel type in 2018
The north Queensland deluge cuts solar production
A quick look at the effect that the monsoonal rains in northern Queensland are having on several power generation options in northern Queensland.
Confirmation of yesterday’s supposition that some wind farms are blinking in the face of negative prices
A brief follow on from yesterday’s post, with the advantage of being able to review yesterday’s bids (and rebids) today.
The “Wind Correlation Penalty” bites in South Australia, and some wind farmers appear to blink
The past week, with wind farm output blowing gangbusters in South Australia (coupled with low demand and System Strength requirements) we seen the “Wind Correlation Penalty” start to bite, with some reactions also beginning to show.
A timely reminder of the need for *much* more diversity in wind harvest patterns
Alerted by our NEMwatch dashboard, I delve into the data and see a scary degree of correlation between the (very low) output of wind farms in south-east South Australia, and (similarly low) output from newer wind farms in northern NSW.
Short term forecasting of wind power plant generation for the provision of ancillary services
As NEM wind power plants progressively work towards implementing FCAS, the criticality of ensuring that the power system either a) takes account of the variability in the wind forecasts coming from the wind power plants in the coming 5-7 minutes and follows the wind direction, or b) sets an appropriate dispatch level to ensure wind variability is minimized, becomes even more important for market and power system operators.
Let’s Keep Talking About FCAS
Following on from the Let’s Talk About FCAS post, the focus of this post is the business case and subsequent optimisation challenge for getting involved in FCAS, now that the technical performance components have been mostly addressed.
Victorian demand rises above 9,000MW – which (in combination with other factors) leads to a volatile day in the southern regions
On a day when high temperatures drove demand in Victoria above 9,000MW (and NEM-wide demand above 30,000MW) we saw some price volatility – with prices in VIC and SA up around $14,000/MWh