Following the release of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3 we’ve chosen to share here one of the clear challenges for large-scale VRE that is emerging (particularly in 2023 Q3) due to the rise and rise of rooftop PV.
Solar Correlation Penalty
Straight out of the pages of the FinReview and into spot price outcomes in the NEM on Sunday 11th July 2021!
An article published by AEMC on the ‘value of dispatchability’ provided the spur to return to our intention of freely sharing insights gleaned from the Generator Statistical Digest 2019. Today’s article highlighting the value of dispatchability.
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes a look, via the GSD2019 (released today), at the four different headwinds facing solar farm developers and operators operating in the NEM.
A full page article in the FinReview today quotes a number of people (including our work in the Generator Report Card) speaking about heightened risk in the NEM. Coincident with this, we see another instance of negative prices in South Australia (which has become increasingly common) but also something I can’t remember seeing before – an average negative price across the entire day so far!
In terms of diversity of intermittent supplies, we need to understand that we’re not just comparing data series on a scale that runs from “highly correlated” to “random”…
A few thoughts about the dispatch price being at, or below, $0/MWh for a dispatch interval on Sunday afternoon – implications for the future…
Some conversations with new generation developers about their prospective developments in northern Queensland has prompted some analysis to help them understand the size of the addressable market for them.
Following from (what we have seen as) an increase in diversity of concerns (and claims) about different aspects of generator performance, we’re leveraging our extensive data set and capabilities to have a deeper look, leading to the publication of a Generator Report Card with data to 31st December 2018. We’d welcome input from those who wish to pre-order their copies now at an initial low rate.
Some further thoughts on what we’ve termed a “Solar Correlation Penalty” which point-view of some specific dispatch intervals seems to suggest is occurring
Already we are seeing the highly correlated output of solar PV deliver interesting challenges for the NEM – both to the project proponents themselves, and also to the “everything else” that supplies what’s left of the underlying demand from electricity from any source.