The trend continues: a review of Q2 2025 spot prices
For nearly a decade, we’ve published annual reviews of Q2 prices to highlight the growing volatility during this period. Here’s our latest edition, examining how Q2 2025 compared.
For nearly a decade, we’ve published annual reviews of Q2 prices to highlight the growing volatility during this period. Here’s our latest edition, examining how Q2 2025 compared.
A quick look at demand, wind and solar forecasts, along with the constraint invocation schedule in SA for this coming Wednesday, where the AEMO currently have an extended forecast LOR2 condition projected.
If we had been in the previous financial year, the old CPT of $1,573,700 would have been tripped.
Spot price volatility occurs in SA on 2 July 2025, yet not to the level that risks exceeding the cumulative price threshold.
After an extended burst of high prices last night, and a short burst this morning, the cumulative price in SA has moved closer to CPT territory.
Cold winter conditions in NSW have pushed market demand in the region above 13GW this evening. Meanwhile, high prices have stuck around in SA.
The weather forecasts are alerting to the formation of an East Coast Low this week. The low is expected to sit just off the eastern cost of Australia, adjacent New South Wales.
Several isolated price spikes have occurred in SA late this afternoon.
A quick look at our forecast convergence widget, with the AEMO currently forecasting an LOR2 in SA tomorrow evening.
Stratospheric warming over Antarctica may have helped bring about the extended period of strong winds in the southern NEM regions.
A short examination of some of the over-arching factors at play yesterday evening - where prices spiked above $3,000/MWh in all five regions simultaneously.
Already this evening we’ve seen a rare occurrence of price spikes in all five NEM regions simultaneously.
The South Australian region is seeing a run of high prices, starting just after 6pm this evening.
Spot price volatility was observed in SA on the morning of 18 July 2024.
We just witnessed another eventful Q2, with at least four drivers contributing to significant price volatility. This is our annual review of Q2 prices, where we compare these outcomes against the long-term trend.
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A tabular summary of how 'declining demand' has been an accelerating theme in most regions of the NEM (and NEM-wide) through 2023.
Fourth article today, taking a quick look at neighbouring South Australia - which has also seen a new 'lowest ever' level of Market Demand.