Another quick look at demand forecasts in QLD for this Friday, 24th Jan 2025
Dan shares an updated look at our forecast convergence widget for this coming Friday afternoon, in light of the record breaking demand in the region earlier this evening.
Dan shares an updated look at our forecast convergence widget for this coming Friday afternoon, in light of the record breaking demand in the region earlier this evening.
Worth a short note to highlight that the AEMO published MN123598 at 19:44 to flag cancellation of ‘Actual LOR2’ in QLD.
So only seconds after(?) we’ve posted this third article, the AEMO publishes MN123594 at 18:43:09 noting ‘Actual LOR2’ in QLD on Wed 22nd Jan 2025.
Following from QLD’s new all-time-maximum level of ‘Market Demand’ we take a quick look at actual levels, compared to AEMO’s earlier (P30 predispatch) forecasts.
A first quick article (with a NEMwatch snapshot at 17:55) noting the new all-time-maximum level of ‘Market Demand’ in QLD on Wednesday afternoon/evening 22nd January 2025.
An ez2view snapshot on Wednesday afternoon 22nd January 2025 with an illustration of the ‘Q-BCCP_812’ constraint set.
AEMO STPASA forecasts for QLD ‘Market Demand’ on Thursday 24th January 2025 is that it might be a new all-time record. Earlier STPASA forecasts suggested it would be above the (prior) all-time record from a year ago.
We noted as it happened (e.g. hard to ignore a steady run of SMS alerts) , but only belatedly publish this record of evening volatility on Thursday evening 12th December 2024.
Because it was the focus of discussion and deliberation recently in the QUD19/2021 QLD Class Action, here’s a view of bidding of all suppliers in QLD on 18th February 2016.
A quick snapshot of some volatility in Contingency Raise FCAS Prices in QLD spanning Wednesday 9th October 2024, Thursday 10th October 2024, Friday 11th October 2024.
Recording a snapshot from NEMwatch at the 18:00 dispatch interval on Sunday 8th December 2024 to record the start of a run of volatility in QLD (and in NSW).
Given the tight supply-demand balance forecast for NSW and QLD this week, it’s worth revisiting the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at 15:35 on Sunday 24th November 2024 to show what the current status is of generator outage plans
A very quick post to look at one of the several reasons we are seeing LOR3 and LOR2 forecasts for NSW and Queensland respectively next Wednesday (27 November). Previous posts from Paul (including this one) have looked at a range…
We earlier noted this ‘Significant (-786MW) drop in NSW demand, on Wednesday 13th November 2024’ … and, in response, a reader (KC) asked a question that inspired this article.
Monday evening 11th November 2024 sees volatility return in QLD initially, and soon also in NSW.
It was a hot and sweaty walk home from the Brisbane office late this afternoon, accompanied by the incessant buzzing of my phone … due to the run of volatility in NSW and QLD we forecast in this morning’s article.
A quick look in the morning of Thursday 7th November 2024 utilizing this collage of 4 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at the 08:35 dispatch interval looking forward to this evening.
Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at the 17:50 dispatch interval (NEM time) highlighting evening volatility in the QLD and NSW regions as we pass beyond sunset on this warm-for-November day.
Worth a short note, given the alerts from ez2view have continued to buzz in recent days, as the AEMO continues to update forecast LOR2 warnings for both QLD and NSW regions for Thursday 7th November 2024.
Prompted by AEMO MN118628 here’s a forward looking view of forecast tight supply-demand balance for QLD on Tuesday evening 8th October 2024.