In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024.
It should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled … but only just.
AEMO’s latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not disappeared).
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
A LOR3 is projected for NSW on 26 November 2024.
On Tuesday morning 19th November 2024 the AEMO MN120612 warns of forecast Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria.
At 04:05 on Tue 19th November 2024 the AEMO published MN120652 noting a forecast LOR2 condition for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024.
We earlier noted this ‘Significant (-786MW) drop in NSW demand, on Wednesday 13th November 2024’ … and, in response, a reader (KC) asked a question that inspired this article.
The ‘Notifications’ widget in one of our copies of ez2view triggered an alert that we’ve not seen all that often at all, flagging a 786MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in the period from 10:25 to 10:30 NEM time on Wednesday 13th November 2024.
Monday evening 11th November 2024 sees volatility return in QLD initially, and soon also in NSW.
It was a hot and sweaty walk home from the Brisbane office late this afternoon, accompanied by the incessant buzzing of my phone … due to the run of volatility in NSW and QLD we forecast in this morning’s article.
An earlier-than-expected spike in spot price in NSW on Thursday afternoon 7th November 2024.
A quick look in the morning of Thursday 7th November 2024 utilizing this collage of 4 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at the 08:35 dispatch interval looking forward to this evening.
Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at the 17:50 dispatch interval (NEM time) highlighting evening volatility in the QLD and NSW regions as we pass beyond sunset on this warm-for-November day.
Worth a short note, given the alerts from ez2view have continued to buzz in recent days, as the AEMO continues to update forecast LOR2 warnings for both QLD and NSW regions for Thursday 7th November 2024.
From the 12:05 dispatch interval, today’s series of SMS alerts has started from the 12:05 dispatch interval (NEM time) announcing new ‘lowest ever*’ points for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW.
With forecasts for a very, very low level of ‘Market Demand’ tomorrow (Sat 26th Oct 2024) in NSW, here’s a longer term trend to show how it would fit in context.
It was only 5 days (on Sunday 20th October 2024) when we saw a new ‘lowest ever*’ point for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW … so we’re amazed to see AEMO forecasting a low point for tomorrow (Sat 26th Oct) a fully 15% lower than that ‘lowest ever’ point.