Actual LOR1 eventuates in NSW on Tue afternoon 17th Dec 2024
Market Notice #122113 states that an actual LOR1 condition has eventuated in NSW, with prices and demand still fluctuating in the region at the time of writing.
NSW
A quick initial review of bids, for Monday 16th December 2024
Monday 16th December 2024 was an interesting day in the NEM for a number of reasons. So we’ll use the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view to do this quick initial review and then, depending what we see, determine whether we want to invest further time to delve deeper…
Warnings of possible LOR3 (i.e. Load Shedding) for Mon 16th and Mon 17th December 2024 cancelled … at least in (large) part due to delay in Outage on Line 17
At 13:06 NEM time the AEMO published MN121831 and 121833 noting the cancellation of the forecast LOR3 that was in place for both Monday 16th December 2024 and Tuesday 17th December 2024.
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday 12th December 2024
We noted as it happened (e.g. hard to ignore a steady run of SMS alerts) , but only belatedly publish this record of evening volatility on Thursday evening 12th December 2024.
Friday morning forecasts for load shedding (i.e. LOR3) in NSW on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th December grow more extreme
We’ll explore ‘what’s changed?’ more in subsequent articles – but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme …
Updated forecast LOR3 (a.k.a. load shedding) in NSW for Monday 16th December 2024 grows wider and deeper … and some concern in VIC
Third article already this morning looking ahead to what’s forecast for Monday 16th December 2024 … longer duration (and deeper) LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW + also LOR2 in Victoria.
A first look into the LOR3 (a.k.a. ‘load shedding’) forecast for NSW on Monday 16th December 2024
With AEMO forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW for periods of time on Monday 16th December 2024, in this WattClarity article we take a first look. More to come *as time permits* (and as situations change, etc…).
Surely not again so soon?! …. AEMO forecasts LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) for NSW on Monday 16th December 2024
“Surely not again so soon!?” … was my first response at reading MN121734 published at 00:42 (NEM time) on Thursday 12th December 2024, forecasting LOR3 (a.k.a. load shedding) in NSW for Monday 16th December 2024.
Curtailment concerns provide a view of the future
Reserve levels and curtailment estimates of November 27 indicate looming transmission challenges for the future.
Mercury Rising: Recent NSW prices and the impact on customers
Oliver Nunn of Endgame Analytics provides this summary of NSW price, demand and generation trends to provide context about what has happened in the region over the past several weeks.
Initial Review of price volatility in NSW in early afternoon Friday 6th December 2024
For several reasons, we’ve reviewed some afternoon volatility in NSW on Friday 6th December 2024.
Afternoon volatility in NSW on Friday 6th December 2024
A snapshot of the 14:35 dispatch interval, at the start of a run of spot price volatility in NSW on Friday afternoon 6th December 2024.
The most recent 14 days of data for VIC1-NSW1
Here’s a quick 14-day review of the operation of the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector, including the price difference across it.
High prices in NSW eventuate early, and briefly, on Tue 3rd Dec 2024 as Collector-Marulan 330kV outage invoked
High prices eventuate slightly earlier than was earlier predicted, coinciding with the ‘N-CTMN_4_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set starting invocation today.
Spicy prices forecast in NSW (and LOR2) … with ‘N-CTMN_4_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set now invoked again
A short note for Tuesday morning 3rd December 2024 to highlight the emergence of forecast LOR2 conditions (and spicy prices) in NSW for later today
Availability utilisation on 27 November 2024 in NSW
Separating curtailment from being priced out, we uncover features of unit utilisation by fuel type on the 27th November 2024.
A chronological record of events in NSW on Wednesday 27th November 2024
Wednesday 27th November saw tight supply and demand balance, NSW Energy prices at the MPC for a string of intervals, actual LOR2 conditions, and activation of the RERT mechanism, but in the end no load shedding (LOR3 conditions) eventuated.
NSW seemingly squeaked through yesterday: Was it even that hot? Did batteries save the day?
An early look at two demand-side factors worth examining regarding the tight situation in NSW yesterday.
RERT dispatched on 27 November 2024 in NSW
A brief recap on the dispatch of RERT on 27 November in NSW compares it to demand levels at the time.
Early reprieve for NSW electricity supply from demand pressure
A demand decline in NSW supports the end to a RERT intervention in NSW on 27 November 2024.