AEMO publishes forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday afternoon/evening 6th January 2025
Following AEMO’s MN122697 (published at 06:51 NEM time), we take a look at the ‘forecast LOR2’ condition for NSW on Monday 6th January 2025.
forecast LOR2
Updated forecast LOR3 (a.k.a. load shedding) in NSW for Monday 16th December 2024 grows wider and deeper … and some concern in VIC
Third article already this morning looking ahead to what’s forecast for Monday 16th December 2024 … longer duration (and deeper) LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW + also LOR2 in Victoria.
Spicy prices forecast in NSW (and LOR2) … with ‘N-CTMN_4_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set now invoked again
A short note for Tuesday morning 3rd December 2024 to highlight the emergence of forecast LOR2 conditions (and spicy prices) in NSW for later today
An updated view of outage plans for Scheduled units above 200MW in NSW and QLD
Given the tight supply-demand balance forecast for NSW and QLD this week, it’s worth revisiting the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at 15:35 on Sunday 24th November 2024 to show what the current status is of generator outage plans
Northern NEM capacity outlook next week – a series of unfortunate events
A very quick post to look at one of the several reasons we are seeing LOR3 and LOR2 forecasts for NSW and Queensland respectively next Wednesday (27 November). Previous posts from Paul (including this one) have looked at a range…
The forecasts for LORx in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have been dialled down considerably … why is that the case?
In the >36 hours since an article on Wednesday the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have become less strident. We start to look at why…
AEMO notes cancellation of forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled … but only just.
AEMO publishes ‘Request for Generator Recall Information for the period from 25/11/2024 to 26/11/2024 for NSW Region’
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
AEMO updates forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024
At 04:05 on Tue 19th November 2024 the AEMO published MN120652 noting a forecast LOR2 condition for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024.
LOR2 notices continue to flash for NSW and QLD for this Thursday 7th Nov 2024
A quick look at market notices and our forecast convergence widget in ez2view, to check in with projected tight market conditions this coming Thursday in NSW and QLD.
Forecast tight supply-demand balance (i.e. LOR2) for QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024
Worth a short note, given the alerts from ez2view have continued to buzz in recent days, as the AEMO continues to update forecast LOR2 warnings for both QLD and NSW regions for Thursday 7th November 2024.
Forecast LOR2 for the QLD region on Tuesday 8th October 2024
Prompted by AEMO MN118628 here’s a forward looking view of forecast tight supply-demand balance for QLD on Tuesday evening 8th October 2024.
Potentially challenging lack of reserve conditions in NSW over 18 to 21 June 2024
Prompted by sequence of alerts about of lack of reserve market notices I delved in to the data to understand where and when using the LOR outlook for the NEM’s regions in ez2view. The alerts were configured on market notices…
Softening of LOR forecasts for NSW in ST PASA and P30
Since the update Saturday morning, the Market Notices (relating to forecast LOR* in NSW on [some day]) have continued … here’s an update.
Saturday morning wrap of forecast LOR conditions in NSW
Following numerous Market Notices overnight pertaining to Forecast LOR2 (or LOR1) in NSW for a number of coming days, here’s a summary on Saturday morning 18th May 2024 using ‘Forecast Convergence’ from ez2view.
AEMO publishes MN116654 for ‘forecast LOR2’ in NSW for Sunday evening 19th May 2024
Another ‘forecast LOR2’ notice from AEMO … this time looking at Sunday evening 19th may 2024.
AEMO ‘forecast LOR2’ for Monday morning 20th May 2024 currently growing tighter
An update (via Market Notice at 11:21) on the forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday morning 20th May 2024.
AEMO updates forecast for supply-demand balance on Monday morning 20th May 2024 … now forecast LOR2
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
The forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024 grows more extreme…
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.
Stubborn forecasts for LOR2 (low reserve condition) for NSW for Thursday evening 29th February 2024
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024