The ‘forecast LOR3’ that persisted through the night slips back to ‘forecast LOR2’ … but might rise again

It’s Thursday morning 18th December 2025, and already we have noted (around 06:00 NEM time):

• the ‘Forecast tight supply-demand balance this evening upgraded to forecast LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) …’.; and also
• that there are 4 of 12 coal units offline at present, and another is experiencing issues.
• there are also considerations to watch with respect to Semi-Scheduled VRE.

 

Someone’s just asked me, so for the benefit of readers I’ve shared below a zoomed-in version of that last ez2view window (now at 08:50 NEM time) with three ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets lined up, now showing GRID view because I’m more specifically looking at change:

Remember that this widget allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to see ‘that other dimension of time’.

 

Reading from bottom to top:

1)  We see that in the 08:00 update this morning, that forecast LOR3 condition for the half hours ending 19:00 and 19:30 have slipped back to (what I presume will be a sharp) forecast LOR2 condition.

2)  Above, with respect to the aggregate UIGF for wind (with the same two half-hours highlighted) we see that the forecast is declining over the recent hours.

3)  With aggregate UIGF for Large Solar (at the top, with those same two half-hours highlighted), no noticeable change in colour up those columns, though they are quite blue already.

 

Readers should note that:

1)  I don’t have time to continue updating through the day … the forecasts might grow tighter again, or might go the other way

2)  But those with a licence to ez2view can track themselves.