Whilst in Brisbane and surrounds it’s definitely a hot summer Christmas Day 2025, it’s a lot cooler down south (including some reports of snow in Tasmania we saw). This is all captured at 13:45 (NEM time) via NEMwatch here:
New ‘lowest ever*’ points for ‘Market Demand in VIC and SA
What prompted us to look was a ongoing series of alerts we’re receiving with respect to new ‘lowest ever*’ points for Market Demand in both South Australia and Victoria, as follows:
As noted in these messages:
- For South Australia:
- Prior lowest point for ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia was 14 months ago (down at –232MW from 19th October 2024)
- But today we see the lowest point (to date) down at -311MW (at 13:35).
- For Victoria:
- Prior lowest point for ‘Market Demand’ Victoria was almost 12 months ago (down at 1,400MW on 1st January 2025).
- But today we see the lowest point (to date) down at 1,289MW (at 13:00).
Actual MSL declarations in VIC and SA
Also note the ‘Actual MSL2’ triggered for South Australia today via MN132116 at 11:56 (NEM time)::
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 25/12/2025 11:56:47
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 132116
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 25/12/2025
External Reference : Actual Minimum System Load MSL2 condition in the SA Region on 25/12/2025
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Minimum System Load MSL2 condition in the SA Region on 25/12/2025
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA on 25/12/2025.
Minimum demand is forecast to be -237 MW at 1330 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
MSL1 34 MW
MSL2 -117 MW
MSL3 -468 MW
The demand is below the MSL2 threshold. The actual MSL2 condition is forecast to exist until 1530 hrs.
Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘
…and ‘actual MSL1’ triggered for Victoria as well via MN132120 at 13:39 (NEM time):
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 25/12/2025 13:39:25
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 132120
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 25/12/2025
External Reference : Actual Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the VIC Region on 25/12/2025
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the VIC Region on 25/12/2025
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC on 25/12/2025.
Minimum demand is forecast to be 1352 MW at 1400 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
MSL1 1695 MW
MSL2 1195 MW
MSL3 695 MW
The demand is below the MSL1 threshold. The actual MSL1 condition is forecast to exist until 1500 hrs.
Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘
Leave a comment