AEMO notes possible early-morning direction in NSW on Thursday 25th September 2025

Yesterday we wrote about ‘AEMO oscillates warnings – possible need to intervene in NSW on Thu 25th Sept 2025 for System Strength reasons’

… with the article (and title) updated after publication to highlight that the the AEMO has oscillated the warnings about a shortfall in System Strength in NSW

So worth calling out MN129729 published on Wednesday 24th September 2025 at 14:29 as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     24/09/2025     14:29:39

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Notice ID               :         129279
Notice Type ID          :         MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description :         Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Issue Date              :         24/09/2025
External Reference      :         Update – Foreseeable AEMO intervention in NSW region

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Update – Foreseeable AEMO intervention in NSW region

Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 129276

AEMO has identified a foreseeable circumstance that may require an AEMO intervention event in the NSW region from 0130 hrs 25/09/2025.

The foreseeable circumstance requiring the need for intervention is System Strength.

AEMO estimates that, in the absence of sufficient market response by 0120 hrs 25/09/2025, AEMO may need to intervene by issuing a direction.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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It would seem that the changing outage plans for ER03 might be a big reason for this: