Yesterday the CSIRO released the 2024-25 GenCost Final Report, produced in collaboration with AEMO. This follows the consultation draft from December. The report aims to provide a view of the relative costs of building and running generators of various technologies up to 2050. The report is now in its seventh year.
As in previous years, the Long-Run/Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) metric features prominently in the report. We’ve written before about how fraught LCOE is when used as a mechanism to compare long-run costs across technologies and that it’s of most use when trended for a single technology over multiple years. Perhaps acknowledging this, the report devotes a page to expressing some of the limitations and concerns around LCOE.
The report did include this chart below showing changes in the much less contentious ‘Capital Cost’ for a sub-set of the featured technologies over the last 3 years.
Media Coverage
For useful reference to our readers, below is a summary of the media coverage about the report that we’ve noted so far:
ABC
- Sarah Morice spoke to CSIRO’s Paul Graham on ABC News Radio
Australian Financial Review
- Angela Macdonald-Smith published Huge extra costs for first offshore wind, nuclear plant: CSIRO
The Australian
- Perry Williams published Coal, renewables jostle for energy costs crown
Sydney Morning Herald
- Nick Toscano published Australia’s green power switch may cost more than first thought: CSIRO
RenewEconomy
- Giles Parkinson published Angry nuclear lobby backs off as landmark SMR deal confirms CSIRO’s bleak cost estimates
Other
- David Carroll from PV Magazine published CSIRO report shows firmed renewables remain lowest-cost option
- Tim Hall from Ecogeneration published CSIRO shows wind, solar and batteries carry lowest cost
- Laurence Karacsony from Sky News published Facts can no longer be concealed’: Labor’s renewables push undermined by CSIRO report proving coal is ‘king’, energy expert claims
I’m definitely going to have a look through the report, but i have noticed the problem nobody seems to address so far is the diminishing operational demand as distributed PV keeps increasing, and now the government is pushing everyone into getting solar batteries. I’m certainly not complaining about that, but surely that is going to affect the grid electricity price and ROI of any new large-scale grid-attached generation projects?
Buried the lede, CSIRO says “We won’t release the modelling for general consumption.”
Take that hoi polloi!