Run of evening volatility starts early, on Thursday 26th June 2025

Today we have already written about:

• The dose of ‘Morning volatility in the southern regions – Thursday 26th June 2025’
• and also about how ‘Cold weather drives electricity ‘Market Demand’ higher (and higher than AEMO’s earlier forecasts)’

 

Here’s a NEMwatch snapshot at 16:50 (NEM time) on Thursday 26th June 2025 with the run of volatility in the southern regions already well underway:

 

Note that, at this time:

• NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ is only 28,683MW … so a long way still to climb this evening
• NEM-wide wind production has dropped down almost to 400MW at this time … which is:
  • only ~4% (rounded down) of the new all-time maximum that was set three days ago (Monday evening 23rd);
  • only ~3% (rounded up) instantaneous capacity factor NEM-wide:
    • Remembering these complexities in choosing a measure for installed capacity;
    • and also remembering that there’s a lag between capacity appearing and its completion of commissioning