AEMO notes increased forecast for Unserved Energy (USE) in QLD due to network outages scheduled between Tue 17th to Fri 20th June 2025

Yesterday (Tuesday 10th June 2025) at 14:21 the AEMO published MN127491 as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     10/06/2025     14:21:15

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Notice ID               :         127491
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         10/06/2025
External Reference      :         RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 10 June 2025

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Reason :

The MTPASA results published on 10 June 2025 identifies no Low Reserve Conditions.

The increase in USE in Queensland forecast between June 2025 and June 2026 is primarily driven by network outages scheduled between 17 and 20 June 2025.

MT PASA provides early information to the market on potential reliability issues, enabling the market to respond proactively and potentially avoid the need for AEMO intervention.

For further information, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy

This notice supersedes Market Notice 127355 published on 3 June 2025.

Background

As part of a broader process of implementing the reliability standard, AEMO runs the Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MTPASA) process weekly to forecast expected unserved energy levels over a two year period. If the expected annual unserved energy exceeds the maximum level specified by the Reliability Standard, a Low Reserve Condition is identified.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO’s website at https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National

Forecasting

AEMO

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END OF REPORT
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Before looking into the MT PASA data itself, I’ve included this morning’s snapshot (at 08:15 NEM time) from the ‘Constraint Sets’ widget in ez2view to show (on the Gantt chart view) the scheduled invocation of constraint sets, starting with those categorised as mainly relating to Queensland:

There’s clearly some network outages currently planned for next week in Queensland … some of these might perhaps be rescheduled, depending on how forecasts progress?

With a quick query produced in the ‘Trends Engine’ within ez2view to focus on the MT PASA data for Queensland, we see the following:

Those with a licence to the software can open their own copy of this query here.