On Friday we wrote ‘Might get close to a new all-time record for wind production late this weekend?’.
So it was of interest (especially due to the Severe Weather warnings for TAS … and then for SA and VIC) to take a quick look at the same pre-prepared ‘Trends Engine’ query from within ez2view to see how close we reached:
As we can see in this chart:
1) The highest point in recent days was 8,094MW on the evening of Friday 30th August 2024;
2) Yield was high over the weekend (it’s really been high since 20th August 2024) – but important to note that the weekend yield might have been artificially lower due to:
Factor #1) It seems highly likely that there would have been strong economic curtailment during peak daylight (i.e. rooftop PV yield) hours, given the negative prices we saw in the NEMwatch snapshots when NSW hit new lowest points on Saturday 31st August and Sunday 1st September;
Factor #2) Also possible is some network curtailment … perhaps also due to the all the steps AEMO took to secure different network elements with the Severe Weather
Factor #3) We’ve wondered about the possibility of high-speed cut-out on wind farm
(a) noting that Ashleigh Madden wrote ‘Have the fierce winds in Tas caused wind farm cutouts?’ for Weatherzone
(b) if time permits, we’d like to take our own look at some point.
Factor #4) Or perhaps there were periods when the wind actually dropped?
3) Also note the forecast bounce-back to higher winds on Thursday 5th September 2024.
Curiosity dragged me a bit further, to open up the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view to look at NEMwide Wind UIGF … and I can’t recall this view ever looking like this one?!
Remember that one can use this widget to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.
We see that the 4-day stretch of strong winds (from Thursday 29th August 2024 evening to Monday 2nd September 2024 evening) suggests that the dips in actual harvest shown above were not due to any dips in wind (i.e. ruling out Factor #4 above).
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