The ‘N::N_CTYS_2’ constraint equation will be invoked for another 11 days … out till Friday 7th June 2024

Amongst other things today, I noticed David Leitch’s comment here (and compliment to Allan O’Neil) with respect to constraints playing a critical role in market outcomes in the NEM … not just in terms of price, but also in relation to dispatch outcomes (and emissions) and security of supply.

Readers here will recall that:

1)  we wrote about how we wrote ‘A quick look at the ‘N::N_CTYS_2’ constraint equation, with respect to Wednesday 8th May 2024’ about how one particular constraint (the ‘N::N_CTYS_2’ constraint equation) played a big role in the outcome on Wednesday 8th May 2024; and

2)  Dan Lee illustrated here how it constrained down the output of wind farms, exacerbating the tightness of the supply-demand balance.

With the ‘Constraint Set’ widget in ez2view, I’ve filtered down the scheduled invocation of all Constraint Sets that contain that particular constraint equation as follows:

… which whittles a long list down to this:

As noted, the AEMO communicated more broadly about the extension to this outage in Market Notice 116820 here:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     27/05/2024     14:05:44

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Notice ID               :         116820
Notice Type ID          :         INTER-REGIONAL TRANSFER
Notice Type Description :         Inter-Regional Transfer limit variation
Issue Date              :         27/05/2024
External Reference      :         Inter-regional transfer limit variation – Collector WF – Yass 3L 330KV Line – NSW region – 27/05/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Inter-regional transfer limit variation – Collector WF – Yass 3L 330KV Line – NSW region – 27/05/2024

A planned outage of Collector WF – Yass 3L 330KV Line in the NSW region was scheduled from 0600 hrs 03/04/2024 to 1500 hrs 27/05/2024.

The outage has been rescheduled to be completed by 1500 hrs 07/06/2024.

Constraint set(s) invoked: N-CTYS_3L_WG_CLOSE

This constraint set(s) contains equations with the following interconnectors on the LHS.
N-Q-MNSP1
NSW1-QLD1
V-S-MNSP1
VIC1-NSW1

Refer to the AEMO Network Outage Scheduler for further information.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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So (at least partly as a result) we see this forecast LOR1 notice for Monday 3rd June 2024:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 27/05/2024 14:56:58

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Notice ID : 116822
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 27/05/2024
External Reference : STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW Region on 03/06/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following period:

From 1730 hrs to 1830 hrs 03/06/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1780 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1751 MW.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Stay tuned ….