Afternoon/Evening volatility on the way for NSW on Wednesday 8th May 2024 (and more tomorrow?)

At 13:52 on Wednesday afternoon (just over an hour after I wrote about how suppressed solar was, amongst other factors, helping to elevate middle-of-the-day prices in NSW) we see AEMO has returned to ‘Forecast LOR1’ status for this evening in NSW:


From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     08/05/2024     13:52:34


Notice ID               :         116540
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         08/05/2024
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW Region on 08/05/2024


Reason :


AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following periods:

[1.] From 1700 hrs 08/05/2024 to 1900 hrs 08/05/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1430 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1125 MW.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations



Here’s a snapshot from ez2view at 14:05 showing sky-high prices forecast to commence in the half-hour ending 16:00 in AEMO’s P30 predispatch prices (notwithstanding Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2 that are still post-5MS artefacts), and continue through until 20:00:



Stay tuned …

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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