Afternoon/Evening volatility on the way for NSW on Wednesday 8th May 2024 (and more tomorrow?)

At 13:52 on Wednesday afternoon (just over an hour after I wrote about how suppressed solar was, amongst other factors, helping to elevate middle-of-the-day prices in NSW) we see AEMO has returned to ‘Forecast LOR1’ status for this evening in NSW:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     08/05/2024     13:52:34

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Notice ID               :         116540
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         08/05/2024
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the NSW Region on 08/05/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following periods:

[1.] From 1700 hrs 08/05/2024 to 1900 hrs 08/05/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1430 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1125 MW.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Here’s a snapshot from ez2view at 14:05 showing sky-high prices forecast to commence in the half-hour ending 16:00 in AEMO’s P30 predispatch prices (notwithstanding Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2 that are still post-5MS artefacts), and continue through until 20:00:

 

Stay tuned …