Run of price volatility in the QLD Region on Sunday evening 15th May 2022

A short note this evening to mark the run of price volatility in the QLD region that began in earnest with first spike above $1,000/MWh in the 16:50 dispatch interval, as recorded here in this run of SMS alerts:

(note that there were a couple spikes this morning in South Australia).

Here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at 18:30 – after the >$1,000 price volatility, but still with prices anchored well above the $300/MWh cap trigger price.

Note that a degree of tightness had been forecast in advance, such as with this forecast LOR1 Low Reserve Condition notice from 12:54 yesterday, Saturday 14th May:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     14/05/2022     12:54:40

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Notice ID               :         96317
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         14/05/2022
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the QLD Region on 15/05/2022

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:

 From 1730 hrs 15/05/2022 to 1800 hrs 15/05/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 730 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 698 MW.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Note (in the Market Notice window in the NEMwatch snapshot above) that Low Reserve Condition forecasts are also currently in place for QLD and SA in the coming days.

Challenging times continue…