A short follow-on from midday’s forward-looking article, noting that there’s much more that could be delved into sometime in future when we (or someone else!) have more time available.
Note – done in a rush, might be errors!
(A) Reserve Trader (RERT) dispatched
In short order this afternoon, the AEMO negotiated supply of Reserve Trader (RERT) from their shortlisted panel (as I noted earlier), and also dispatched the Reserve Trader as noted in Market Notice 72889:
Notice ID 72889
Notice Type ID Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Notice Type Description MARKET
Issue Date Thursday, 23 January 2020
External Reference RERT DISPATCHED
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
AEMO Intervention Event, Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) – NSW1 Region- 23/01/2020
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 72886
AEMO has dispatched/activated reserve contract(s) to maintain the power system in a Secure and Reliable operating state.
The reserve contract(s) was dispatched/activated at 15:30 hrs 23/01/2020 and is forecast to apply until 17:30 hrs 23/01/2020
AEMO has implemented an AEMO intervention event for the duration the reserve contract(s) is dispatched/activated/
To facilitate the RERT process, constraints commencing with the following identifiers may be evident at various times in dispatch,
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
One question that a more knowledgeable reader can help me with – Reserve Trader was dispatched from 15:30 to 17:30 (i.e. essentially an out-of-market intervention that implies that the market “failed” in not having enough reserves available), and yet the spot price was not held at the Market Price Cap for that entire time. Why was this the case? What am I missing?
(B) Broader calls for conservation
We also saw the AEMO call more broadly for conservation of energy across the NSW Region – such as in this notice on Twitter, which Craig Memery at PIAC gave a helping hand to circulating:
This was also echoed by that State Energy Minister that “no-one in Federal Cabinet knows” (not that that should be taken as an insult, as some probably don’t know how to tie their own shoelaces):
(C) But only a single dispatch interval at MPC!
With all of the above we would have (ordinarily) thought to see more prices up near the price cap – instead just 14:10 as shown in this snapshot from ez2view:
Interesting to highlight here the effect of the price differential between NSW (at the Market Price Cap) and VIC (down at –$40.05/MWh) has on portfolios that have assets in both regions – like Snowy Hydro shown in this schematic. We can see over 2,000MW being produced in NSW from the Tumut plant but 0MW from Murray (as they would understandably would want to avoid operating at negative prices).
The “N::V_UTYS_2” constraint which is bound and affecting the output of many plant in NSW is also shown below to be acting to reduce the output of Tumut 1& 2 (UPPTUMUT) and Tumut 3 (TUMUT3) because of the high positive factor:
… however we see the output of TUMUT 3 in the ‘Unit Dashboard’ widget in ez2view actually ramping up:
Because the local Connection Point Dispatch Price (CPD Price) for TUMUT3 was down at –$993.64/MWh we know that it must have been bidding at least that low (at the RRN) to be dispatched. So we have the case where:
(1) Snowy Hydro is bidding below –$993 for TUMUT3 in order to be dispatched (and paid the Market Price Cap Dispatch Interval price in the NSW Region – adjusted for the 5/30 issue)
(2) Snowy Hydro is bidding MURRAY out of the market in the VIC Region because it does not want to be dispatched at the negative prices that have been running for the afternoon
(3) The combined 2,000MW that is being produced in NSW from the Tumut plant (along with all the other production in NSW) is jamming the VIC-NSW interconnector to reduce flows north – or indeed to max it out flowing south, at a time when people in NSW are being asked to conserve power (and some are being paid through RERT).
Strange times indeed…
PS – using Thursday’s events to fine-tune the ongoing development of ez2view
Hence (as time permits) we’ll look forward to producing a more considered Case Study of what went on – however (because of where we are at with this particular project) I thought it would be useful to quickly review two specific dispatch intervals yesterday using the new version of the ‘NEM Prices’ widget that is being designed to replace the existing one within ez2view. There are specific reasons we’re redeveloping this widget (including details discussed specifically with a particular client). Big ones include:
Reason 1 = ensuring it works with Time-Travel within the installed ez2view (such as is shown in this image below).
Reason 2 = ensuring it provides better visibility when used in ez2view online via a small screen (e.g. on a phone, so users can also still read the FCAS prices).
14:10 dispatch interval – first price spike to Market Price Cap
Here’s one snapshot of the 14:10 dispatch interval with the price spiking to the Market Price Cap in the NSW region:
Interesting (at least to us) to note that also:
1) The Raise Regulation price on the mainland jumped to almost $300/MWh at the same time; whilst
2) The Raise Contingency 6-second price in Tassie was up over $10,000/MWh!
18:45 dispatch interval – third price spike to Market Price Cap
At the time I had published the article above (i.e. 15:55) there had only been that spike above – however there were two more later that day. Here’s the third one shown, where we can see the QLD region price also high:
Raise Regulation price still quite high, some hours later – something to keep in mind, in terms of ‘Causer Pays’ liabilities…
17:30 dispatch interval – second price spike to Market Price Cap (one with Intervention)
The AEMC’s recently changed the rules in relation to what AEMO does in relation to Intervention in the market (in the Generator Report Card 2018 we showed how intervention featured in 25% of all dispatch intervals through 2018 partly as a result of learnings out of Sept 2016, but the way of managing this in future won’t see as many periods of intervention).
However 17:30 on Thursday afternoon saw one occasion where intervention did happen. The new widget allows us to toggle between pricing achieved in the ‘Financial’ Run (i.e. which determines what generators are paid) and the ‘Physical Run’ (i.e. which sets a ‘dispatching price’ based on who’s actually dispatched and how, net of the intervention). Here’s two images:
1) Financial Run on the left
2) Physical Run on the right.
Note the huge difference in the price for QLD and NSW regions in the ‘physical run’.
Looking forward to having this widget accessible to clients!