Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias

Today I have noted (in this listing of observations across the past couple months of our own residential solar PV output at home) that I fell trap to the tendency to place too much emphasis on what’s happened recently, to the extent of losing a broader perspective of what’s happened over a broader time range (i.e. in terms of performance, or change, or other characteristics).

I’ll post more about this, in more general terms, when I have more time…


About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

1 Comment on "Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias"

  1. Interested to see your thoughts on this. I regularly see another bias at work – optimism bias – which is where people think that things that have happened in the past to others wont happen in future to them, without any genuine reasons for thinking this.

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