… and the winner is?

Posted by Paul McArdle Friday, March 11 2011 Topic: Who's the best demand forecaster in the NEM?

Became distracted yesterday with the analysis of demand over summer 2010-11, and did not have time to check who was the closest bidder to the eventual peak in demand.

I noted previously that it had been people in the trading companies who had been winners in years gone past.

This is why I am pleased to see that the closest to this summer’s peak demand is not from a trader, but is from AEMO itself – Richard Hickling bid <200MW higher than the actual demand peak.  That’s within 0.6% so is a pretty good result.

As it turns out, Richard was certainly one of the most bullish forecasters, with only 9 entries above him (some of these considerably higher).

We will be in touch with Richard to arrange for delivery of the promised BBQ.

Congratulations from all of us!

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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