First Spike in Demand this Winter As Temperatures Plunge

Posted by Paul McArdleWednesday 10th June 2009  12:00 AM   Topic: Winter 2009

The following snapshot from NEM-Watch v8 (captured automatically through a Local Alarm we have set up on a display machine in our office) highlights how demand rose above 32,000MW for the first time this winter (to 32,029MW at 18:00).


click to view full size

In particular from this diagram, see (by the relative colour-coding) how the demand in both the NSW and Tasmanian regions was relatively high, compared with the all-time maximums for these regions.

We see that the NEM-Wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) was 18% at the time, which (in comparison with the low levels experienced in winter 2007) was still very comfortable for the market – however we note that the prices had climbed in all regions (perhaps indicating the re-introduction of the “Economic Withholding of Capacity” we first noted for winter 2002, and which has been a consistent feature of winters since then).

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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23rd January 2006 – new record for peak NEM-Wide demand

Based on forecasts NEMMCO had been providing through their PASA process, we expected that it might prove that this week would deliver huge demand levels, and high prices.

Not to disappoint, the market did deliver high levels of demand in all regions:
(a) Peak demand levels were reduced somewhat from the huge levels the previous week in Victoria and South Australia;
(b) Demand levels were also still building to the record level to be experienced the following week in NSW;
(c) Peak demand levels in Queensland were fairly steady (and high) for most weeks of summer.
(d) In combination, a new NEM-wide peak demand target of 30,994MW was set on Monday 23rd January.

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