Worth a short note with this snapshot from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget(s) in ez2view at the 19;20 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Monday 29th December 2025:
It’s the forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ on Thursday 1st January 2026 that are of particular interest, with both forecasts for VIC (at the top) and SA (in the middle) showing low colours, noting the heat-mapped colours are set with the new all-time minimum levels experienced last week Thursday 25th December 2025 (and Friday 26th December 2025 for Victoria).
This article (at least in part) is because of AEMO’s Market Notices today of ‘forecast MSL2’ for both Victoria and South Australia looking forward to Thursday.
For instance, at 11:01 the AEMO published MN132246 as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 29/12/2025 11:01:47
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 132246
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 29/12/2025
External Reference : Update to the Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL2) condition in the VIC region on 01/01/2026
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Update to Market Notice 132178 – AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 01/01/2026.
Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
– MSL1: 1855 MW
– MSL2: 1355 MW
– MSL3: 855 MW
The demand is forecast to be below the MSL2 threshold for the following period:
From 1100 hrs to 1430 hrs 01/01/2026. Minimum demand is forecast to be 959 MW at 1300 hrs.
Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.
AEMO Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘
Note that, should the System Load reach the low-point forecast here (i.e. 959MW) it would be only 104MW above MSL3 level.
At 11:01 today, the AEMO published MN132245 as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 29/12/2025 11:01:36
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 132245
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 29/12/2025
External Reference : Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the SA Region on 01/01/2026
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA region on 01/01/2026.
Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
– MSL1: 34 MW
– MSL2: -116 MW
– MSL3: -468 MW
The demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:
From 1000 hrs to 1530 hrs 01/01/2026. Minimum demand is forecast to be -246 MW at 1330 hrs.
Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .
AEMO Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
Whilst this notice speaks to ‘forecast MSL1’, the lowest level of System Load forecast here is below MSL2 level, as well.
“Whilst this notice speaks to ‘forecast MSL1’, the lowest level of System Load forecast here is below MSL2 level, as well”. Paul think your pickup here may not be the first time an MSL2 has been classified as a MSL1.