Forecast violation for 3 x System Normal constraint equations on Thursday evening 18th December 2025

Another short note as Thursday afternoon 18th December 2025 advances, now at the 15:00 dispatch interval (NEM time) – here’s a snapshot of the ‘Constraint Equations’ widget in ez2view, that’s

• unfiltered (i.e. showing all 930 constraint equations invoked and scheduled to be invoked in predispatch);
• but is sorted by Marginal Value in predispatch.

What we can see are:

1)  There are a large number of constraint equations all forecast to be bound with large Marginal Values around the time of the forecast volatility this evening;

2)  With three, in particular, even forecast to violate:

(a)  The ‘N>NIL_998_18’ constraint equation, violating from the 19:00 half-hour;

(a)  The ‘N>NIL_9R6_9R5_N’ constraint equation, violating from the 19:00 half-hour;

(a)  The ‘N>NIL_9R5_9R6_N’ constraint equation, violating from the 19:00 half-hour.

Interesting times…