At 10:24 (NEM time) on Wednesday 17th December 2025 the AEMO issued its latest ‘NEM Local Temperature Alerts’ Market Notice, and this one’s a long one that spans all four mainland regions in the days ahead:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 17/12/2025 10:24:44
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Notice ID : 131731
Notice Type ID : GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description : Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date : 17/12/2025
External Reference : NEM Local Temperature Alerts for NSW, QLD, SA, VIC from 17 Dec 2025 to 21 Dec 2025
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO’s weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures equal to or greater than the NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels for listed weather stations below.
NSW
Deniliquin Ap (39+ Deg C): 18th Dec, 19th Dec
Lake Macquarie (39+ Deg C): 21st Dec
Mudgee Ap (39+ Deg C): 21st Dec
QLD
Dalby Ap (37+ Deg C): 20th Dec, 21st Dec
SA
Adelaide West Terrace (39+ Deg C): 18th Dec
Clare High School (39+ Deg C): 18th Dec
Port Augusta Ap (39+ Deg C): 17th Dec, 18th Dec, 19th Dec
VIC
Ararat Prison (39+ Deg C): 18th Dec
Mildura Ap (39+ Deg C): 18th Dec, 19th Dec
The NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels are:
Launceston Ti Tree Bend: 33 Deg C, Dalby Airport: 37 Deg C, for all other selected weather stations: 39 Deg C.
AEMO requests Market Participants to:
1. review the weather forecast in the local area where their generating units / MNSP converter stations are located and,
2. if required, update the available capacity in their dispatch offers or availability submissions consistent with the forecast temperatures.
Further information is available at:
AEMO Operations Planning
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END OF REPORT
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In this article, we’ll focus particularly on the forecasts for tomorrow (Thursday 18th December 2025) – including in this ez2view snapshot below containing 3 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets:
Remember with each of these:
1) That the grids are designed so one can ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’
2) And to click on the image to open a larger-size image in another tab.
From top to bottom:
1) The top grid shows warm-and-getting-warmer forecast for NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’:
(a) climbing towards 32,000GW for the half-hour to 18:30 (NEM time)
(b) which would be the highest level seen this summer (and indeed since July 2025).
2) The middle grid shows a stubborn forecast LOR2 for the NSW region
3) The lower grid shows a more recently evolved forecast LOR2 for the SA region
… so we’ll be watching to see what transpires.
These coal stations are getting old with nothing to replace them.
Based on NSW SCADA tonight (so may not be trustworthy), I think there could be 3 of 9 operational coal turbines in derating after 7pm tonight.
A NSW LOR2 of only 80MW remaining tomorrow came an hour later.