May we live in interesting times, indeed?!

Amongst the other busyness of today (Tuesday 11th November 2025):

1)  it’s probably worth an update on our article from last Friday 7th November 2025 where we noted ‘(First ever?) forecast MSL warnings issued for South Australia for the coming week’

2)  since which time, our alerting has peppered us with notifications about ‘forecast MSLx’ conditions for recent and coming days in South Australia (so much so that we dialled our settings down so as not to drown).

3) which is a change from the silence (at least with respect to South Australia) previously, which we suspect is just because the AEMO has only recently implemented MSL processes for South Australia

(a)  Whereas they have been operational for Victoria for some time.

(b)  But we’ve not had time to confirm or suspicion.

But (amongst other updates for today), it’s worth a short update about a couple of things:

An overview of the Market today

Let’s start with this snapshot from NEMwatch at the 12:00 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Tuesday 11th November 2025 to set the scene:

We can see ‘Market Demand’ for the South Australian region down at only 55MW … so coloured dark blue on a sliding scale based on historical MIN and MAX ranges (but readers should keep in mind that ‘Market Demand’ has gone negative increasingly commonly in South Australia … not yet elsewhere).

What’s more of interest are the Market Notices highlighted, which we’ll discuss in samples below.

Direction (to Torrens BESS) for MSL in South Australia for today

At 07:44 (NEM time) today, the AEMO notes in MN130548 as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     11/11/2025     07:44:53

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Notice ID               :         130548
Notice Type ID          :         MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description :         Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Issue Date              :         11/11/2025
External Reference      :         Direction – SA region 11/11/2025

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
Direction – SA region 11/11/2025
Refer to Market Notice 130525
In accordance with section 116 of the National Electricity Law, AEMO is issuing a direction to the participants specified below. For the purposes of the National Electricity Rules these are directions under clause 4.8.9(a1)(1). 

Directions issued to:
AGL SA Generation Pty Limited – TORRENS IS BESS

Required actions:  remain synchronised and follow dispatch targets at 0730 hrs 11/11/2025

These directions are issued at 0730 hrs 11/11/2025

Type of resource: bi-directional unit

Services provided: Minimum System Load Management

Circumstances necessitating the direction: AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state

Expected duration: 1500 hrs 11/11/2025

No participant specified in this direction incurs any civil monetary liability for a relevant action taken in accordance with this direction unless the action is taken in bad faith.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Then shortly afterwards (at 07:49 NEM time) today, the AEMO noted in MN130549 as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     11/11/2025     07:49:03

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Notice ID               :         130549
Notice Type ID          :         MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description :         Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Issue Date              :         11/11/2025
External Reference      :         Direction – SA region 11/11/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Direction – SA region 11/11/2025

In accordance with section 116 of the National Electricity Law, AEMO has issued a direction to a participant in the SA region. For the purposes of the National Electricity Rules this is a direction under clause 4.8.9(a1)(1).

The issue of the direction commences an AEMO intervention event. AEMO declares all trading intervals during the event to be intervention trading intervals, commencing from the interval ending 0735 hrs on 11/11/2025.

Intervention pricing does not apply to this AEMO intervention event.

AEMO may issue or revoke additional directions in order to meet the current requirement, unless sufficient market response is provided. A further market notice will be issued when all directions related to this requirement have been cancelled.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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At 11:51 (NEM time) today, the AEMO notes in MN130555 an actual MSL1 condition exists:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     11/11/2025     11:51:02

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         130555
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         11/11/2025
External Reference      :         Actual Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the SA Region on 11/11/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Actual Minimum System Load MSL1 condition in the SA Region on 11/11/2025

[Update to Market Notice 130526] – AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA on 11/11/2025.

Minimum demand is forecast to be -5 MW at 1430 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
MSL1  133.5 MW
MSL2   -16.5 MW
MSL3   – 368 MW

The demand is below the MSL1  threshold. The actual MSL1  condition is forecast to exist until 1530hrs.

Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

Note that this condition has been seen to exist even after the Direction.

So I thought I’d grab the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view and have a look at the recent performance of the Torrens Island BESS unit (DUID = TIB1), at least with respect to the ENERGY market:

We can see that the unit, since being directed

Looking forward to tomorrow

Looking forward to tomorrow (Wednesday 12th November 2025) we also see (via MN130553 as follows) that there remains a forecast MSL2 condition for South Australia tomorrow:

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MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     11/11/2025     11:02:31

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         130553
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         11/11/2025
External Reference      :         Update to the Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL2) condition in the SA Region on 12/11/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Update to Market Notice 130487 – AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA region on 12/11/2025.

Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
–       MSL1: 134 MW
–       MSL2: -16 MW
–       MSL3: -368 MW

The demand is forecast to be below the MSL2 threshold for the following period:
From 1100 hrs to 1330 hrs 12/11/2025. Minimum demand is forecast to be -53 MW at 1230 hrs.

Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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PS1 at 12:52 on Tuesday 11th November 2025

No sooner had we hit publish that we notice one of the other noisy alerts had pointed us to MN130558 that was published at 12:36 (NEM time) today, noting that an actual MSL2 condition exists:

——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 11/11/2025 12:36:41

——————————————————————-

Notice ID : 130558
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 11/11/2025
External Reference : Actual Minimum System Load MSL2 condition in the SA Region on 11/11/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Minimum System Load MSL2 condition in the SA Region on 11/11/2025

[Update to Market Notice 130553] – AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA on 11/11/2025.

The advisory threshold is:
MSL1 133.5 MW
MSL2 -16.5 MW
MSL3 – 368 MW

The demand is below the MSL2 threshold. The actual MSL2 condition is forecast to exist until 1600 hrs.

Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data .

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Interesting times, indeed…