High level uncertainty about daytime QLD (and to a lesser extent NSW) ‘Market Demand’ with TC Alfred

Those of our team at Global-Roam Pty Ltd  who are Brisbane based are taking our own precautions (re TC Alfred), as best we can.

But we’re still trying to keep an eye on what’s happening more broadly in the NEM … so it’s worth flagging this snapshot from ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view looking at forecasts for QLD and NSW region ‘Market Demand’ as at the 13:40 dispatch interval (NEM Time) on Thursday 6th March 2025 … where it really does seem like ‘the calm before the storm’ quite literally in Brisbane:

In yesterday’s article we noted the Dispatch Interval focused demand forecast to provide the ‘Market Demand’ Target for the end of each dispatch interval.

The AEMO also extends this type of process out a week ahead through P5, P30 and ST PASA time horizons, with some of these shown above.  The uncertainty highlighted for yesterday, today and coming days is totally understandable given:

1)  The uncertainty of what the cyclone will do to normal ‘Underlying Demand’ in terms of temperature and humidity etc.

2)  Plus what happens with rooftop PV production … both from the point of:

(a)  widespread cloud cover suppressing PV output; but also

(b)  people following directions from NSPs (like Energex here) that they should preemptively power power down their PV systems (to prevent risks in the coming days if flooding is expected, or evacuation to the roof is necessary, and so on).

3)  And that’s even before thinking about how many customers are going to lose supply and over what duration … that’s not something I believe AEMO takes account of in these forecast models (and nor should they, I believe, given the purpose of these forecasts as an input to the dispatch process).

Stay safe, everyone.